Smackdown! Gold Bulls v. Gold Bears -

With some apparent progress on the tariff front, some people in the mainstream are turning bearish toward gold, thinking the economy can avoid a recession and dodge a resurgence in price inflation. 
Is their bearishness justified?
On this week's episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey takes on the gold and silver bears, arguing there are at least three significant factors that should continue to support gold in the mid to long term.  
In this show, Mike also explains why Idaho Governor Brad Little was wrong to veto a bill authorizing state gold and silver reserves because of the storage costs.
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Mike opens the show with a confession: he's not much fun to watch hockey with. 
<blockquote>
"I ride the emotional roller coaster. I can go from, 'This team is so awesome! We’re going to win the Stanley Cup,' to, 'This team sucks and will never win another game,' in the span of about one goal. I think a lot of people out there in the mainstream approach investing the same way. They can swing from mega-bull to mega-bear on the power of one post on X."
</blockquote>
Mike notes that over the last few weeks, there have been some signs of growing bearishness toward gold and silver, and increasing optimism that the U.S. economy can steer clear of both a recession and revived inflation pressures.
<blockquote>
"After all, tariffs were absolutely the only problem on the economic horizon.
"Hopefully, your sarcasm meter just pegged.
"But can you really blame market analysts? I mean, it’s been all tariffs all the time for months. It stands to reason that if that problem is looming less large, there would be an exhale of relief and a sense of optimism. I’m definitely seeing that in some of the financial news commentary out there."
</blockquote>
Mike points out Citigroup is one of the major financial institutions suddenly turning bearish on gold. Citi lowered its forecast, projecting the yellow metal's price would drop below $3,000 next year. 
<blockquote>
"Citi analysts cited easing geopolitical tensions, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal. They also hold a relatively sanguine outlook on the direction of the economy, saying there is a growing sense that it can avoid a recession and that inflationary pressures will remain contained."
</blockquote>
Citi's analysis hinges on cooling trade tensions and an easing of tariffs. But Mike says that raises a question.
<blockquote>
"Would an end to trade tensions necessarily abate inflation and recession fears?
"I don’t think so. And you won’t be shocked to learn that I’m still bullish on gold. Because no matter what happens with the trade war, there are significant unresolved issues in the economy. I’m going to cover three today."
</blockquote>
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Mike starts with ongoing de-dollarization. He explains how the dollar's share of global reserves has dropped as gold has risen. Central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold over the last three years, creating significant support for the recent bull rally. Based on a recent survey of global central bankers, that trend isn't expected to reverse anytime soon.
<blockquote>
"Reserve diversification will likely continue to support gold, and it may well accelerate as it becomes more evident that the U.S. is unwilling to take the steps necessary to get its fiscal house in order."
</blockquote>
Mike next turns to the inflation issue, insisting that despite the cooling CPI, inflation's death is greatly exaggerated. He explains how the Fed created the inflation problem to begin with, and how it never did enough to fix the problem. He notes the recent surge of the money supply, pointing out that this is, <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925" rel="noreferrer">by definition</a>, inflation. 
Mike also reminds listeners that inflation is by design. 
<blockquote>
"It’s also important to keep in mind that inflation isn’t an accident. It’s the policy. The Federal Reserve constantly devalues the dollar. The central bank isn’t trying to end inflation. It just wants to keep it at a level that you don’t notice."
</blockquote>
Finally, Mike argues that recession worries shouldn't recede into the rear-view because it's not just about tariffs. The economy is set up for a crash by decades of monetary malfeasance. 
<blockquote>
"I think tariffs are just one of many potential catalysts for an economic meltdown. It’s like the economy is a candle, and it’s just looking for a match. Tariffs might be it. Or something else."
</blockquote>
In a nutshell, the central bank and the U.S. government manufactured a boom by addicting the economy to easy money. 
<blockquote>
"Don’t forget, every boom comes with a corresponding bust. We haven’t reckoned with that yet, and we’re due."
</blockquote>
Mike argues that while gold may see some selling pressure in the near term, these three factors support a mid to long-term bullish outlook for gold.  
He then turns his attention to Idaho Gov. Brad Little, who recently vetoed a bill that would have authorized the state to hold gold and silver reserves. The governor’s stated objection to the legislation was “the many additional costs that will be borne by taxpayers for the storage, safeguard, and purchase of commodities such as gold or silver.”
Are Little’s stated concerns about the cost of precious metals storage justified? How much does it cost to store gold and silver?
Mike takes apart Little's argument, showing that storage fees shouldn't create a barrier to precious metals investing, any more than brokerage fees should keep people from investing in stocks. He also highlights the benefits Idaho missed out on because it couldn't take advantage of gold's recent run up.
<blockquote>
"While the cost of storing gold and silver isn’t zero, it certainly isn’t a bank-breaker. This is especially true when you consider how much is lost due to inflation by holding cash."
</blockquote>
Mike concludes that it's foolish to spurn gold because of storage costs.
This leads to a call to action. Given that there is still a bullish case for gold, Mike urges listeners to call Money Metals Exchange at  800-800-1865 and talk with a precious metals specialist today.
<h2>Articles Mentioned in the Show</h2>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015" rel="noreferrer">Buy Gold and Silver to Hedge Against Counterparty Risk</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/06/19/fed-holds-rates-steady-as-stagflation-worries-mount-004136" rel="noreferrer">Fed Holds Rates Steady as Stagflation Worries Mount</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/06/17/survey-indicates-central-banks-plan-to-keep-buying-gold-004131" rel="noreferrer">Survey Indicates Central Banks Plan to Keep Buying Gold</a>

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