Why Gold's Bull Market Is Still Very Young -

I’m a big fan of finding and using unique ways to value assets to determine whether they are cheap or not. 
In the case of precious metals and other commodities, this isn’t as straightforward as it is with assets like stocks, bonds, or real estate, where you can use simple metrics such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book value ratios.
This means we need to get creative and make comparisons to other important assets or economic data. The absolute price of an asset does not determine whether it is <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/29/precious-metals-are-officially-oversold-004445" rel="noreferrer">overvalued or undervalued</a>. 
For example, there have been times, like in 1980, when gold at $800 was very expensive, and other times, such as in 2020, when gold at $1,600 was a bargain.
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That’s why it helps to compare precious metals to meaningful yardsticks. In this report, I’m going to share five specific yardsticks: U.S. dollars, U.S. inflation, M2 money supply, the Dow, and the national debt, and use them to make the case that gold’s current bull market is still very young, relative to the last secular bull markets in the 1970s and 2000s, and has many more years ahead of it. 
While this report focuses solely on gold, I plan to publish a similar one on silver soon.
For the purposes of the exercises in this report, the dates I’m using for the two prior secular gold bull markets are August 1970 to January 1980 for the 1970s bull market, and April 2001 to September 2011 for the 2000s bull market. These timeframes are widely accepted as the official start and end points of those respective bull markets.
As for the current secular gold bull market, while there is some subjectivity and debate around when it began, I’m using October 2022 as the starting point. I believe this is well justified based on where gold bottomed, both in dollar terms and relative to the other four yardsticks used in this report. This can be clearly seen in the charts I’ve included.
I also believe that, while October 2022 marked the bottom and the start of the new secular bull market, it was in March 2024 that it truly gained momentum and vibrancy. I plan to write another piece soon to explore that nuance and distinction, but for the purposes of this report, I’ll use October 2022 as the starting point.
Let’s begin with the most rudimentary reference point: the spot price of gold in U.S. dollars. During the secular bull market of the 1970s, gold rose by 2,400% over 113 months. In the 2000s secular bull market, it gained 630% over 125 months. 
By comparison, the current secular gold bull market is up only 147% over just 36 months. This is a clear indication that the current bull market is still in its early stages relative to the previous two, and I believe it has much further to run.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-1-Spot-Gold-Prices-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.jpg" width="800" height="603" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Next, let’s examine the real price of gold, which is gold adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). 
This is a more meaningful metric than the nominal price shown earlier because the key question is not how much gold has increased in absolute terms, but whether it is keeping up with inflation. After all, gold is the best hedge against inflation over the long run.
During the secular bull market of the 1970s, the real price of gold rose by 1,125% over 113 months. In the 2000s secular bull market, it gained 486% over 125 months. In contrast, the current secular gold bull market is up only 128% over just 36 months. 
This further supports the view that the current bull market is still in its early stages compared to the previous two, and I believe it is just getting started.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-2-Real-Gold-Prices-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.jpg" width="800" height="601" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Now we will look at gold in relation to another measure of inflation: the U.S. M2 money supply. The money supply may be an even better indicator of inflation than the CPI, which is known to understate actual inflation. 
Moreover, growth in the money supply is the underlying cause of inflation itself. As Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist, famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
During the secular bull market of the 1970s, gold measured against the M2 money supply rose by 888% over 113 months. In the 2000s secular bull market, it gained 305% over 125 months. 
In comparison, the current secular gold bull market is up only 140% over just 36 months. This is yet another indication that the current bull market is still quite young, and those claiming it is long in the tooth are clearly out of touch with the objective facts.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-3-Gold-to-US-M2-Money-Supply-Ratio-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.jpg" width="800" height="601" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Another novel yardstick I have been experimenting with lately for <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/03/is-the-precious-metals-pullback-over-004456" rel="noreferrer">comparing precious metals and commodity prices</a> is the U.S. national debt. After all, the more the national debt grows, the closer that brings us to the final ultimate fiscal crisis, which will then open the floodgates of digital money printing. 
That, in turn, will cause a currency crisis and hyperinflation, which will send precious metals to prices that our minds can barely comprehend.
During the secular bull market of the 1970s, gold measured against the U.S. national debt increased by 978% over 113 months. In the 2000s secular bull market, it rose 195% over 125 months. In comparison, the current secular gold bull market is up only 115% over just 36 months—a sign of a young bull market that still has a lot more life left in it.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-4-Gold-to-US-National-Debt-Ratio-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.jpg" width="800" height="601" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Finally, we measure gold against the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which I find to be a particularly useful yardstick. There is a well-established principle that equities and gold move in opposing long-term cycles, where one outperforms the other as large amounts of capital rotate between them. 
When major secular bull markets in stocks come to an end, such as in the early 1970s or early 2000s, a significant amount of capital typically flows out of equities and into gold, and I believe we are about to see that dynamic play out again, which will send gold’s current bull market into overdrive.
During the secular bull market of the 1970s, gold measured against the Dow rose by 2,352% over 113 months. In the 2000s secular bull market, it increased by 681% over 125 months. In comparison, the current secular gold bull market is up only 71% over just 36 months, which indicates that, by historical standards, it has barely even begun.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-5-Gold-to-Dow-Ratio-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.png" width="800" height="554" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Now that we’ve looked at the various yardsticks in chart form, I’ve compiled all the data on gold’s performance in past and current secular bull markets into this helpful table to show how the current one compares. 
As you can see, by every metric, the secular bull market that began in October 2022 still pales in comparison to the previous two. This is a clear indication that it has many more years and gains ahead.
For example, if gold were to match the performance of its 1970s bull market, it would reach a peak of $40,486 per ounce. If it were to replicate the performance of the 2000s bull market instead, it would peak at $11,819 per ounce. In both cases, these targets are significantly higher than the current price of $4,001 per ounce.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-6-Gold-Performance-in-Secular-Bull-Markets-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.png" width="800" height="397" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
As Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist, famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” It is no surprise, then, to see the most widely referenced measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), surge alongside the money supply.
In fact, the CPI has nearly doubled since the year 2000, placing immense pressure on the middle class and fueling a wave of radical political movements. 
An increasing number of politicians are unfairly and incorrectly blaming capitalism for the soaring cost of living, rather than acknowledging the real issue: the abandonment of sound money backed by gold.
Those politicians are doing this disingenuously to score political points and gain power so that they can implement socialistic policies, which only add more harmful layers without addressing the root cause. It is a truly maddening situation.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-7-US-Consumer-Price-Index-CPI-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.png" width="800" height="503" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
Finally, we turn to the chart of the U.S. national debt, which has ballooned nearly sevenfold since the year 2000, reaching a staggering $38.15 trillion. It is now growing by an astonishing $1 trillion every 100 days. 
This trajectory is clearly unsustainable, and we are heading toward a breaking point that will ultimately lead to the collapse of the paper dollar, euro, pound, yen, and all other fiat currencies. And when that happens, gold will be the big winner.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Graph-8-US-National-Debt-Jesse-Colombo-Money-Metals-min.png" width="800" height="433" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" />
As we conclude, many investors and pundits, almost none of whom predicted gold’s latest bull market to begin with, are now quick to call it over. They are doing so based on emotion rather than facts, typically believing that gold is a “bubble.” 
That belief is based on a false premise, as they are unaware that fiat currencies are fundamentally unsound. They are also ignoring objective data, such as how the current secular bull market in gold compares to previous ones using a wide range of yardsticks beyond just the nominal price. That comparison clearly shows that gold’s bull market is still very young and just getting started. 
That’s my view, and I’m sticking to it. And that is why I have no fear whatsoever about the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/11/06/precious-metals-pullback-is-losing-momentum-004462" rel="noreferrer">recent minor pullback</a>.
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