Where Do I Hide? -

Treasuries have historically served as a safe haven in times of geopolitical uncertainty. 
Not this time.
Bonds have sold off modestly since the beginning of the U.S.-Iran conflict, as evidenced by rising yields. As Mike Maharrey explains in this week's Midweek Memo podcast, it sure looks like gold is the last safe haven standing. He explains why Treasuries are struggling to catch a bid and how a long war could exacerbate the situation. He also highlights a note by UBS to make a bullish case for gold, war or no war.
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Mike opens the show asking the audience if they experienced the "luck of the Irish" on St. Patrick's Day. That led to a short discussion about leprechauns and their gold. Then he asks the operative question, setting up the theme of this show.
<blockquote>
"Is gold the last safe haven standing?"
</blockquote>
Mike argues that given the way Treasuries have behaved, it sure looks that way. 
<blockquote>
"While one would expect U.S. Treasuries to get a boost from the geopolitical uncertainty inherent in a war, they have not. In fact, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.96 percent the day before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack to 4.20 percent yesterday afternoon. It’s not a huge surge, but it certainly doesn’t scream everybody wants Treasuries.
"Meanwhile, the 30-year yield has taken a similar trajectory, nudging up from 4.63 percent on Feb. 26 to 4.85 percent as of yesterday.
"Again, this indicates pretty tepid demand for U.S. debt.
"Meanwhile, gold was the go-to safe-haven when news of the war hit the presses. The yellow metal surged above $5,400 an ounce before giving back most of those gains a few days into hostilities."
</blockquote>
Mike notes that even with an ongoing war, there doesn't seem to be a lot of "risk-on" sentiment, and most markets seem to be trading sideways with elevated volatility. 
<blockquote>
"Stocks have steadied, and oil has generally stayed below $100 per barrel apart from some headline-driven spikes. Gold has traded sideways throughout the conflict, wiggling up and down depending on the headlines. Still, you would think a war would give bonds some kind of boost. Nope. Not at all. So, why aren’t U.S. Treasuries catching a safe-haven bid?"
</blockquote>
Mike offers two reasons. One is specific to the dynamics of this particular war, and the other is the more fundamental shift away from dollar assets. 
Mike leans on the analysis of Forest for the Trees founder and respected macroeconomic analyst Luke Groman to explain how this particular war is creating headwinds for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly Treasuries. He believes that with oil prices surging, foreign nations are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and investors are selling these assets to buy oil. 
<blockquote>
"They have to have energy, they have to have food, they have to have these commodities. And so, they will sell dollar assets starting with treasuries because they're the deepest and most liquid, to essentially buy oil."
</blockquote>
In a quick aside, Mike reiterates that rising oil prices aren't inflation — at least not in the sense economists historically define the phenomenon.
<blockquote>
"Yes, higher energy prices can cause the cost of a lot of other things to go up. Energy factors into about everything. But true inflation – a rise in the general price level – is not caused by price shocks. Again, I’m not saying rising oil prices don’t cause problems in the broader economy. In fact, I think a prolonged war could be the pin that pops the bubble and sends this debt-riddled economy into recession. But it’s still not inflation properly defined. Inflation is the increase in money and credit. Rising consumer prices are one symptom of this monetary inflation. So, please, for the love of all that is good, don’t let the government people and their mouthpieces convince you that rising oil prices will cause inflation. They are hiding the real cause – money creation driven by loose monetary policy – which is only going to get looser."
</blockquote>
Mike then tackles the second reason Treasuries can't seem to catch a bid, noting that the war is playing out on a larger game board. 
<blockquote>
"Treasuries have been struggling for months because a lot of countries simply don’t want any more exposure to U.S. fiscal malfeasance. The national debt has surged to $38.9 trillion.  Meanwhile, the federal government has shown zero interest in reining in spending. On top of that, it is blowing through an additional $1 billion per day to fight the war. That’s on top of the already out-of-control spending problem."
</blockquote>
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Mike highlights the February Treasury statement, pointing out that the federal government ran another massive deficit last month. While revenues are up around 10 percent, they aren't up enough to fill the budget hole, especially given the constant increases in spending. 
<blockquote>
"The government blew through another $620.62 billion last month. That was up 2.8 percent over the same period last year. In total, Uncle Sam has spent $3.1 trillion through the first five months of fiscal 2026. That’s up about 2 percent over the same period in fiscal ‘25. A 2 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts? Instead, we got a war."
</blockquote>
Mike asks a rhetorical question that drives home why people aren't bullish on Treasuries. 
<blockquote>
"Would you want to lend your drunk uncle, who has maxed out all his credit cards, more money? If not, you understand how the rest of the world feels about Uncle Sam. So, it’s not surprising that many countries are anxious to minimize their exposure to the dollar."
</blockquote>
Mike explains why the de-dollarization trend could spell big trouble for the federal government. 
<blockquote>
"The only reason Uncle Sam can borrow, spend, and run massive budget deficits to the extent that it does is the dollar’s role as the world's reserve currency. It creates a built-in global demand for dollars and dollar-denominated assets. This absorbs the Federal Reserve’s money creation and helps maintain dollar strength despite the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies.
"If the world needs fewer dollars, they will begin to return to the U.S., causing a dollar glut. This will increase inflationary pressure domestically as the value of the U.S. currency further depreciates. In the worst-case scenario, the dollar could collapse completely, leading to hyperinflation."
</blockquote>
Mike wraps up the show, highlighting a recent note published by UBS that is extremely bullish on gold. The Swiss bank projects the price will rise around 20 percent this year, topping out as high as $6,200 an ounce. The analysts cite several reasons for their bullish forecast, including the expectation of further rate cuts despite growing inflationary pressure. They said, "We expect structural trends such as elevated government debt as well as central banks' and global investors’ efforts to diversify away from the greenback to support gold’s long-term outlook.”
Mike emphasizes that when you live with a perpetual inflation machine, you need real money to preserve your wealth from the currency debasement — gold and silver. He closes with a call to action, urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and speak with a Money Metals precious metals specialist.
<blockquote>
"One thing is certain. Your dollar won't be worth as much next month as it is today."
</blockquote>
<h2>Articles Mentioned During the Show</h2>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/17/leprechauns-gold-and-the-end-of-the-rainbow-004767">What's Up With Leprechauns, Gold, and the End of the Rainbow?</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/16/us-government-debt-black-hole-got-bigger-in-february-004764">U.S. Government Debt Black Hole Got Bigger in February</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/12/cpi-steady-as-inflation-keeps-increasing-004756">CPI Steady as Inflation Keeps Increasing</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/01/12/common-definition-of-inflation-you-hear-today-is-wrong-government-propaganda-002925">The Common Definition of Inflation Is Wrong! It's Just Government Propaganda</a>

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