WELDON: “Back Up the Truck” Moment for Silver & Gold -

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up don’t miss another wonderful interview with Greg Weldon of <a href="https://www.weldononline.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Weldon Financial</a>, a renowned commodities trader with over 40 years of experience. Greg weighs in on the ongoing correction and consolidation in the precious metals and shares why he thinks this may be a “back up the truck” type of opportunity for metals buyers and where he sees silver going in particular.
Greg also tells us what he’s expecting near term in the AI-driven stock market boom which has kept equity markets stubbornly high, and whether or not he sees that trade finally coming off and what that is likely to mean for precious metals once AI stocks finally fall out of favor.
So, be sure to stick around for Mike Maharrey’s latest conversation with one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update. And if you enjoy this material, please do us a favor and like and subscribe to this podcast wherever you consume this content.
Well, everyone can relax.
Apparently, we don't need a Fort Knox gold audit after all.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently assured Fox News that the gold is "present and accounted for."
Not that he's been there… and not that any compartments have been opened or audited for many years. But a couple of Bessent's own staff members said they've checked the schedule of vault compartment seals. So, everything must be totally fine.
This is ridiculous. Would you trust a bank that refused an independent audit? Or one that insisted an audit wasn't necessary because the bank's management says everything is in order?
Of course not.
That's precisely why businesses conduct external audits. They catch mistakes, deter misconduct, and give customers confidence that the books actually match the reality.
Despite decades of official assurances like the one we received from Secretary Bessent this week, the U.S. gold reserves have never been subjected to the kind of comprehensive, independent audit that any reputable private depository — like <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-gold-storage">Money Metals Depository</a> — routinely undergoes.
Even the famous 1974 Fort Knox tour wasn't an audit – it was a photo op. Giddy politicians posed with gold bars, but there was no full bar count, no systematic verification of serial numbers, no comprehensive assaying, and no public accounting of the inventory. Nor has there been any independent examination or disclosure of any financial transactions involving America's gold reserves, which is frankly the largest area of concern.
And here's the part that has always puzzled us here at Money Metals: whenever someone suggests conducting a real audit of U.S. gold reserves, critics don't just disagree – they seem offended by the very idea.
If the gold is really all there and unencumbered, a true and complete independent audit should settle the debate once and for all.
After all, if the U.S. Treasury has nothing to hide, what exactly are they afraid of?
Turning to the markets, gold and silver have stabilized heading into the weekend as investors continue to wrestle with the competing forces of rising geopolitical tensions and persistent expectations for higher interest rates.
Gold and silver both suffered sharp declines of 2-3% in Thursday's trading before bouncing back here on Friday. Normally, escalating conflict in the Middle East would provide a strong tailwind for safe-haven assets. However, this time the dominant market reaction has been through the energy markets.
Crude oil prices exploded higher after Houthi forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, prompting President Donald Trump to promise what he described as "major military punishment" against Iran and its proxies. Brent crude surged more than 7%, climbing back above the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level for the first time since May. Brent crude as slipped back below $100 here today though.
Higher oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, and that's shifted investor attention back toward the Federal Reserve. While policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting, futures markets continue to anticipate another rate hike later this year, with traders assigning roughly an 80% probability of a September increase.
That prospect has boosted Treasury yields and supported the U.S. dollar, creating headwinds for precious metals despite the deteriorating geopolitical backdrop.
For now, the bigger picture hasn't changed dramatically. Both gold and silver appear to be marking time inside broad trading ranges. The next decisive move – whether driven by the Fed, inflation data, or further geopolitical escalation – will likely determine the next major trend for precious metals.
Well before we get to this week’s interview let’s take a look at the weekly market action.
Gold is up about 1.4% to trade at $4,083 an ounce. Silver is advancing 5.0% or nearly $3 an ounce and checks at $59.47.
The PGMs are fairly quiet with neither platinum nor palladium looking all that different today in terms of price than they were a week ago. Platinum trades at $1,607 – up a scant $4 and palladium is up $6 and comes in at $1,272 an ounce of this Friday late morning recording.
Well now, without further delay, and for much more on the future of metals and the overall financial markets, let’s hear from a man who has an incredible pulse on the state of things and let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.
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Mike Maharrey: Greetings, I'm Mike Maharrey and I'm joined today by Greg Weldon. Greg is a 40-year plus market veteran and publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report. And between us, one of my favorite guests here on the podcast. How you doing today, Greg?
Greg Weldon: Like I said before, you say that to all the pretty girls.
Mike Maharrey: I really don't. I enjoy your take and I don't know, I feel like our personalities are kind of similar, so it's easy to talk to you. Anyway, I got an email from you yesterday and I thought it was kind of interesting, and this is what you said. You said you are returning to the long-term bullish forecast and positioning in gold and silver and you're buying. So what's changed?
Greg Weldon: Well, today changed. I mean, it depends on how you're looking at it. I mean, to me, if you remember, I have said that $61 was a downside target when we were above a hundred.
We got out around between 96 and 98, so I thought we did just instinctively did pretty well with the exit. Actually got short at one point, made a little bit of money, three or $4, something like that to the downside. But I thought maybe you could even get down as low as 54. I mean, that would be like last guess support. I really didn't think you'd get below 61, 62 and you kind of have. So when it popped back above 60, to me that was I want to buy strength and I want to buy physical, adding to my vault collection at the fine money and metals exchange and the Gleason Brothers and find jobs that you do. You're my number one. So, if people want to deal with you, that's who I always give them. And myself participating in this course, and whether it's buying silver shares that I did last year and my personal portfolio just for shares was up 167%.
And that kind of sunk because it was up 217 at one point. By the time that you get out, you're giving something back. You're always giving something back, getting asked the hardest thing. I think we got out well. And then the question was, when is what I call, and I have people asking me this now a lot in the last two months, the back the truck up moment, which means you back the truck up, you dump as much silver into the back of the pickup as you can as the tires will hold up, you put extra suspension in the truck and you drive away with as much silver as you can carry. And what I'm doing now is it's kind of one of those things of taking money that you might have in the bank that I'm not necessarily trading. It's kind of whatever that's your little security blanket that's money for your kids or God forbid we keep getting older and older.
And turning it into gold and silver as opposed to dollars in a bank. So it's really that simple. It's something I've been doing over the long haul and you guys got the facilities to make that happen. And so partaking in that. Having said that, we did buy for our money management. It was registered, seriously registered CTA. We have our performance since our inflation busting program started in 2018 to coincide with the opening of the Chinese crude oil exchange, trading Dubai OPEC grade crude, priced renminbi, benchmarking Russians, Earl's crude to the beginning of the end for the dollar. And that was the beginning of the next big inflation. Of course, COVID hit and just accelerated and intensified anything. But these kind of things will be happening anyway regardless of COVID at this point in time. So we got long yesterday, but I pitched it here because I think the bigger trade is the down move in the equity indexes.
And that may drag gold down like it did in 2008, goes down, but by less. And you could say, and I think we had even the last time I was on your program, that it looked and felt like to me that you had more of a asset price disinflation move coming, which included gold and silver, included all the crypto and Bitcoin, included even things like copper, which have great long-term projections in terms of supply and demand and uranium too, and the whole nuke sector has kind of come off. So I think when we had this flip into Moonshot and Kimmy K3, and I'm not an expert, but I try and stay ahead of the curve knowledge-wise because you have to, this was a big deal and what have you, you have kind of a triple… I always like it when it comes in threes. You had the SpaceX IPO.
You had the Moonshot KIMI K3 comes out. It's cheap. It's high on the scale. It's only behind Fable and GPT 5.6 in terms of its efficiency and its ability to do different tasks. And the cost is like one sixth. And then you had the hack, OpenAI who's borrowing tons of money to do these data center build-outs, which may or not, you're reaching a pinnacle point. It's a one-off. This is not going to be this kind of CapEx for the next five years. So I think in terms of the economy, that's played its role. And you see stuff like Meta is now saying we've created more capacity than we could possibly use right now. So how about instead of letting someone else use the capacity, whatever, we sell the energy we've created for the capacity we're not going to use. Brilliant plan. I mean, I always love Mark Zuckerberg.
I mean, he really is way up there with Bezos and talking about the rim. But then you have this hack by OpenAI into this huggy-kissy site, whatever the heck it was, hug face or whatever.
And the way it happened was AI got loose of human oversight created its own internet, got into the firewall. And then this company that got hacked was trying all the US models to fight the hack in the way they normally would, but it wasn't working. And what did they do? They went to the Chinese model to fix it. So if this isn't a sign that this AI bubble is about had it and the real underlying consumer service sector of the economy is struggling and going to struggle more because the base effect in energy plays out even if prices don't go up from here, you're going to have 35 to 55 to maybe as much as 60% year-over-year inflation throughout the rest of the year. The energy dynamic, the whole curve flipped to the upside when the June numbers came down, just published in CPI and retail sales.
So, that's gone already. That's behind us now. That decline inflation. So I think there's a real tricky situation. And I think that ultimately buying silver, to get back to the original question on a very long-winded answer, that below $60 is value in gold and silver. My silver projections that we put out way back when it was to me and to us and we talked about this, you and I off camera, on camera, that above 36.50 was a breakout in silver. No whether it would go to 50, but how quickly would it happen? Those were our exact words.
Mike Maharrey:
I remember that.
Greg Weldon: And it happened real quickly and then it was like, okay, 100, no problem. And are my long-term projections when you overlay a lot of things, when you compare it to gold, and when you look at back what happened back in the '80s, and that couldn't happen because Hunt price the corner of the market, but they weren't going to let them do that. This is entirely different. This is a legitimate demand outpacing supply dynamic that is not going to reverse anytime soon. So in that context, it also comes down to my target of being $326 for silver in the next three, say five, six, seven years. And so that's why buying silver in bulk at $60 an ounce, double, triple the value of your money and you don't have to pay taxes. There's no taxing on gold profits. You roll over your gold and cash it out.
You're not paying tax on your accumulated value. So, I think it's a layup. It's slam dunk.
Mike Maharrey: Slam dunk. I like it. So I've been writing a lot over the last week or so about the bond market and came across some pretty good analysis by Will Thomson over at Massif, and I actually interviewed him last week. And combining that with some of the comments that Jim Grant has made over the last couple of years about a secular market and bonds. We're seeing this, we're seeing the high or the long end of the yield curve pushing upward and upward. So, the conventional wisdom though is that these interest rates rising are actually negative for gold. And that's part of the reason or at least the explanation that you get for why we've been trading sideways for the last couple of months. So, in your view, I mean, I think it's pretty clear that the bond markets are struggling and I think it's pretty obvious why we have the weaponization of the dollar.
We have the fiscal irresponsibility of the governments that are issuing these bonds. I wouldn't want to invest in something like that, so that makes sense. But do you think that people are kind of getting it wrong in terms of just being bearish for gold?
Is there a disconnect there that I'm missing?
Greg Weldon: I don't think there is, but I think there's a shortened view of what it means. So, I don't think it's a disconnect to say that this environment in the bond market is not good for gold. It isn't. Because what it's reflecting is a disinflation in asset prices that's reflected in a flattening of the yield curve. So when you have a breakout in the yield curve, that's basically saying a couple of things, and we just got this from, I did a big piece, so happy to send any of your viewers. We did the stock market on Monday. The weather, of course, El Nino and crops and food price inflation's a big deal. We did a piece yesterday and today we did the EU bond markets and all of this stay the same stuff because the ECB and what they just said. It could be the market saying you're behind the curve, you're falling behind the curve and inflation curve.
And the longer you wait, the more you're going to have to raise it the short end, which depresses the long end because at that point it's really going to hurt. The consumer is already hurting. So it's kind of a stagflationary signal, which is not positive for gold. Having said that, that doesn't mean that rising bond yields isn't good for gold because we have rising bond yields we have in the context of a flattening yield curve. So the two to 30-year spread is narrowed, even the 30-year, 10-year spread is narrow. It's across the board in both Europe and the US, very obvious. But when you start to see, and here's why I love to connect the dots from all over the world. If you want to talk bond markets, the thing for people to watch is the Italian German bond yield spread, which has just started to break out, just moving towards where maybe you can get back above a hundred basis point Italy over.
And it's not so much that Italian inflation is higher. It isn't. It's same as Germany, it's around three. We just got EU inflation three. And talking about the EU, I mean, Lagarde said nothing. I mean, it was almost dovish, the commentary from the ECB today. And if you read the statement, and I break it down in my piece today, and it basically is the ECB's talk about the bond market is hearing you. In other words, we're hearing your dovishness. We're driving yields higher, live by the short end because you're not acting quick enough. So, we're going to do your job for you. And so I think that's an interesting way because you do have stagflation, if you have a consumer, you do have consumer final demand, particularly in the US that is very much struggling. So, how the Fed pulls this off, I don't know.
And I think that that really puts stocks in the spotlight because if stocks decline here, then that really takes the big thing that's holding everything up out of the picture. And that's when I think then you say what's next? You know what's next, Mike. They do this every time and this is where you can say the bond market's going to have problems. And we could talk about AI and taking away jobs, but also taking away income tax, the biggest contributor to the revenue side of our budget at a time when spending's out of control and there are months we spend twice as much as we deck in. Now you potentially got to cut income tax down by 20, 25, 30, 40%. Holy mackerel, we're talking about a bond market crisis, but that really doesn't have bond market crisis. It's more of a dollar crisis because they will print money looking to the deflation abyss.
They will choose to reflate every time. They will print money even if they have to do monetary arm again, which I wrote in 2007 in my book. Treasury chief and the Fed chair are in the bunker, the monetary bunker, the turnkey simultaneously. Print enough dollars to buy every treasury bond ever sold. Monetary, are we good? And that simple is I've done the math based on money supply and debt and all this stuff right now. If they did that right now, your $20 pizza, $20 pizza costs $786.
So, that's the problem you have. So, the bond market really isn't even about the bond market. And if the bond market does get loose, which is very possible if AI really crimps on revenue, government revenue, then that could be a problem. And then you're going to have higher yields and it's going to be a problem and the dollar will decline and we're going to have a tougher time selling our debt.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's interesting though, because I think everybody has bought the sales pitch that Kevin Warsh is throwing out there. I'm an inflation hawk. I am not going to tolerate inflation over 2%. We're going to drive this down. We're going to raise rates. And I'm with you. I feel like if you look at history, the default is to print money, not to fight inflation. Are you in agreement with me that this is a lot of hot air coming out of the Fed chief and when the rubber -
Greg Weldon: I wrote a piece last week, not to cut you off, I'm sorry. What you're saying is perfect. It really is, and I couldn't agree more. I wrote a piece last week and I called it The Greatest Central Banker Ever? Talking about Kevin Warsh.
Because I've always said it's central bank ease. It's Fed speak. It's this archaic language where they kind of talk both sides of their book and really at the end of the day say nothing. Well, this guy is likable, he's good-looking, he engages people, he smiles at people, he compliments people. When he went to the G20 meeting, it's like Christine Lagarde and the people from Europe couldn't follow over him enough because he was so complimentary to them, deferred to their experience. He knows how to play his game. This guy is sharp, man. He's a poker player and he's very sharp. But he also has an ability to get beyond the normal central banker, which is why I say, is he the greatest central banker of all time? Because he speaks not with fork and tongue, with Trident tongue. So, he is talking about they are resolved.
This is the first out of the gate. And you knew. And I said to people, look, he comes in here, he's not going to count out to Trump. That's exactly what he can't do. He knows that. And what he exactly has to do is establish inflation, vigilance to establish credibility. Straight up had to do it, and he did. And he did it very well. But the problem is when you start talking about it's about the other side of the decimal point, and I'm committed to getting it there no matter what it takes. Other central banks have given up halfway or whatever it is. He likened himself to Paul Volker, meaning going draconian on our butts and taking interest rates to 20% if that's what it takes to beat inflation. But then all of a sudden when he is testifying on Capitol Hill two weeks later, the Humphrey Hawkins, I guess is what they used to call it.
And all of a sudden then he's getting asked about flexibility in monetary policy during times of crisis. And he says, well, kind of, and his words weren't in reality, but the rest of what he said is verbatim. He goes, "Well, in reality, the real thing to look at is price stability more so than a target." And it's like, wait a minute. We can't have it both ways. And when you look at inflation, Mike, we've talked about this before. Everyone's looking at gasoline. Everyone's looking at energy. They want to look through it. Clearly, Lagarde and the ECB just told us because even their own surveys they just did of the banks and the credit conditions have been tightening in Europe for the last six months. Monetary conditions are tightening. That's another reason because the dollar's higher, the yield curve's flattening, and interest rates are going up both at the long and short end. Monetary conditions are tightening and credit conditions are tightening in the US, which is why it's bears for gold as opposed to this was an inflation runaway where they're chasing inflation, which will probably be what happens. Then the economy will collapse and the stock market goes down, they'll have to cut rates and go back to printing money. That's the scenario.
But I also think that relative to your question, Warsh can't do what he's saying he's going to do. And to say that emphatically just sets himself up to fail. It's unfortunate. And even talking about shrinking, shrinkage, shrinking the balance sheet. There's no way, man. There is no way he's going to be able to shrink the balance sheet and contain the bond market and have a healthy consumer when all this AI stuff disappears. Because as you'll know and I know, the PNQI, the internet retailer ETF, the XLY, the S&P discretionary consumer ETF and the XRT, the S&P retailer ETF have all broken down against the stock market. These are the things that broke down in 2008. These are the things that bottomed first before March of 2009 and were already rallying. They were always a leading tell. They led all the way through 2014 shrinkage and then called the 2015 16 spoon, called the 2018, remember Christmas Eve selloff in 2018?
It actually called the pandemic and it's calling for big declines right now on a relative basis in terms of the S&P 500 relative to where it is. And when you see how much of the leadership is just in chips, is just in these AI data center buildouts, the big cap names, it's hard to envision how that continues.
So, we'll see. And that would be the Fed's out. I mean, maybe it goes so much in just thinking out loud that Warsh can say these things because he sees the writing on the wall, the AI, the stock market. He knows the stock market's going to bring the economy back to earth and bring inflation down because it'll print demand.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah. I always say listen or watch the video. Don't just listen to the sound. And there's a lot of yap, yap, yap coming out of the Fed. But I think it's very notable that if you go look at the balance sheet trajectory, the balance sheet's still creeping up. So, they're running quantitative easing right now, even as Warsh is running around talking all hawkish. And I think that is probably more relevant than all of the words that have fallen out of his mouth.
Greg Weldon: And it's under the guise of maintaining adequate reserves to keep Fed funds in line, which suggests there's more demand out there than it is availability of money right now, which we know not to be true when you look at AI. So yes, it's under the guise of something that's not even really happening.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah. So one of the things I really enjoy about your analysis is that you pull a lot of different things in and you pick up on a lot of things that aren't being focused on by the mainstream. Right now, everything seems to be about the war and about what's going on in Iran and the strait of Hormuz. I have a feeling that there are other things that you're watching. So maybe what is one or two big issues that are outside of the war and what everybody's talking about that you're really kind of focused in on as we look at where the markets may go in the next months ahead?
Greg Weldon: There's one specific thing that is huge to me. That is the weather. And you know my view on this. It's a long-term view. It's based on the 25,800-year solar orbital cycle through the Crosso Rhine Spur of the Milky Way between the two spiral arms of the traverse and where we are right now in a zone. The procession of the equinox is the mine calendar. Now this isn't an end, it's the final procession of the equinoxes before you start the new cycle. So what we know to be true, and I've spoken publicly about this really dating back to also 2018, studied the mine calendar in college with one of the leading experts on the mines back in the day, Anthony Avini at Colgate University was my major. And I've been studying it my entire life. So, what we have is whether you have a place that is highly electrified because of the number of source systems that we're close to now.
It's a highly populated area, light plasma, light comes from these places, pure plasmas, pure energy is bombarding the stratosphere. I forget what the number is. It's like a million quadrillion. I forget how you say the exact number. It's like so many light particles are blasting our stratosphere right now and it's lifting the electricity of the planet. It's lifting the vibrations of the planet and the crust. And then the core movement is faster in terms of the spin rate. And that's why some people think it's going to flip the poles, the kind of thing. There's definitely been movement of the pole. The true north pole has gone from over Canada to over Russia in the last 15 years. So all of this is science. I mean, it's true. It's not even debated.
But what happens is within this context you get more of everything gets polarized too because we have these gravitational forces on both sides of us. The sources of light also gravitational pole. That's pulling us apart. So you have everything's polarized and both ends of the spectrum are vibrating or resonating at a higher rate of frequency. And I do this thing when I used to do public speaking because now it's kind of common knowledge. But back in 2018, this was still kind of new stuff for most people. And I used to do a mason jar and talk about how you picture something. How do you give a visual to somebody that's not really scientific, not really understanding what you're saying? It's like taking a mason jar and having one M&M in there and shaking it up. And the M&M goes around crazy, violently crashing in stuff versus packing it with M&Ms and shaking it.
Well, the previous cycle was packed with M&Ms. Now we're going through cycle where we're just passing a level where maybe we're only half full of M&Ms. It's only taking M&Ms out of this mason jar going forward for the next literally hundreds of years to where the thought process is several hundred years from now, the plant's not habitable and that's why everyone's trying to find go to Mars and do all these other things. So, within that context, the weather is key and understanding the weather is going to be more extreme than ever. And then seeing, okay, what happens? You have the lowest snow cover in the Western US we've ever recorded, which means less water. So, already starting the spring when you're talking about places that grow a lot of crops, you're talking about California, Arizona, particularly fruits and vegetables. Keep that in mind. Because the other thing is you have 35% decline year over year in fog in Northern California, which sounds like kind of, okay, so who cares?
It's a major source of moisture and water for the crops. So then you talk about El Nino. This goes all the way back to February. February 29th, NOAA put out their ENSO warning on El Nino and gave it a 25% chance of coming through into June. So it would come in June and with 25% chance it would be the worst El Nino in quote unquote NOAA. The government telling us recorded history. This has progressed now to where they just issued an update and I followed the updates every month since then. This is now expected to last not only through June and the planting season. And in May, they upgraded that to October, November. It's now April of next year and this thing will worsen until then. Already you're talking about sugar in Thailand. You're talking about coffee crops in Vietnam, in Brazil. It affects different places on the planet in different ways.
And so many food commodities are involved. It's about food commodities. The next big resource is the next big inflation. Already fruits and vegetables because of some of the stuff before this lettuce fiasco. We're 5.9 year-over-year inflation. Why? Because they're coming from California where they're having difficulty, let alone the state's in chaos to begin with. So I think that food inflation, I think that's going to be the next big thing that people aren't talking about. At a time when you have 47% of 84 service price inflation, CPI service prices, 47% are greater than 4% year over year, more than double the Fed's target. So you keep talking about oil. The strip in oil is out the roof for the next six months, number one. So do you think are you going to see gasoline fall below $1.70 by this fall? It's not happening, man. No way.
Mike Maharrey: No way.
Greg Weldon: Plus we have the lowest gasoline supplies for this time of year in years and including the SPR. Our crude oil reserves are the lowest since the '70s. Within that context, the throughput on a daily basis to refineries trying to pump out gas and distillates and all these things that we need to pump out, over 17 million barrels a day. And people say, well, we're energy independent. Well, that's true in natural gas, not petroleum independent, not at all because our maximum output, we're pushing 14 million barrels a day. We're left with an average 3.3 million barrel per day crude oil deficit in this country. We're a net importer of crude oil. And Venezuelan crude is not the answer. It's very heavy. It's tough to refine. It's very expensive to maintain refineries with that kind of great crude oil pumping through it. So it's not like the be – all and end-all answer.
It's a real problem. And people that think gasoline prices are going to come down at the war ends. I said, well, when it looked like that was going to happen, 265 was value and $65 in WTI was value. And it really didn't even get there before it started back higher. So when you talk throw food inflation on top of this, I think that the Fed is kind of screwed, man. And so what are they going to do? If Morse is going to do what he really wants and says he's going to do, bring inflation down, he needs to get to 5% of Fed funds. He needs to be tight because right now inflation is above Fed funds. So, Fed funds, I mean with the recent decline inflation, depending on which inflation indicator, but they're neck and neck. So right now policy at its tightest is flat, neutral.
It's not tight. Rate policy's not tight. They're not fighting inflation at all from that perspective. So, they would have to be very active. And there are some people in the business that think that they're going to raise rates still three times this year. I don't see that happening because he's not going to want to raise rates when a consumer's struggling if inflation goes up and gas prices stay high and now food's more expensive. It's going to be a problem. Yeah.
Mike Maharrey: As you're talking, my wheels and my head are churning and it really emphasizes the fact that the economy is about stuff. We get focused in on the movements of money and the mechanizations of policymakers and those types of things. But really what it comes down to is things you're digging out of the earth, things you're pumping out of the earth, the things that you're growing in the earth. And that's really the key. And you can only cover that up for so long with financial mechanizations, right?
Greg Weldon: Yeah. And it's a world war. I mean, I've said this again since 2018. I mean everything we've done since 2018 is about the big picture cycles. It's about creating a managed accounts program that will help people in the best possible way to maintain the purchasing power of their money. I mean, that's the bottom line. That's what we're doing. That's why you're buying gold and sticking it in a vault somewhere because it will appreciate. It will keep pace with what it costs to buy stuff. The dollar will not do that. Absolutely. So in that same kind of context, it really is. It's about a world war for resources. And we are not even talking rare earth. Where rare earth gone? The US is still all in from upstream to downstream to actually manufacturing products with these metals in them, with these nanometals and all these things that the rare earths are.
The wide range, the 17 key elements that China controls between China, Russia, and Vietnam, they control over 80% of what's in the ground on the planet. It'd be great if we got Greenland. It doesn't even double our capacity in terms of stuff in the ground. We don't mine it. And let alone the little mining we do, we don't turn it to concentrate. We don't turn it into then something you can actually put in a product and then create the products like the magnets. We don't do any of that. This is still over 90% committed to China. And China just said because of the diatribe that Trump came on with Chinese meddling in the elections the other night, which was hard to watch. And I'm a conservative and I'm a supporter of most of his policies, but sometimes he just doesn't know when to stop talking and just do your job with a little more silence.
You don't have to pat yourself on the back every five seconds. The ego and the mouth get in the way. I'm sorry, it's just the truth. And all the Trump people now would say I'm a Trump hater, which I'm so not.
But at the same time, China came back and just gave them a little tap tap. Well, remember the rare earth thing. So maybe we'll start, and this is what they said, maybe we'll start looking at every license because what they did, the way they saw the rare earth thing 18 or 24 months ago, whenever the hell that finally came to fruition because it was a big deal, was to review the licenses that they stop reviewing. That doesn't mean they opened it up. You can import as much as you want. No, this is still such a wide range of disadvantage that we're at in that case. They got us by the proverbials, man, in that case, and they're going to use that. And there was another skirmish with Philippine fishing vessels. So it's a resource war. China is winning. They're accumulating commodities. They have more gold than treasuries in their reserves.
They're doing all this. They're way ahead of the game. Xi's playing above the rim. I think it was one of your guys sent me a picture that was an AI created picture of Xi in a basketball uniform and a basketball going above the dunk and the body and the picture just didn't match. And I'm like, no, that doesn't look good. But he's playing above the rim. Trump can barely get off the floor. And that's not to denigrate the US. I mean, I'm all for the US, but the reality is what it is. And they have the advantage in terms of they're going to take Taiwan. Taiwan already wants to get back together with them, the opposition party and this woman Lou. So that seems to be something that's off the table. And already they want to sell their arms to them and China says, "Well, if you do that, it's like an act of war and all of a sudden that thing's just Disappeared. You haven't heard anything about the arm sale in Taiwan because it's not going to happen. Now they're back with messing with the Philippines. Why fish for food? They're back messing with Vietnam. Why? Oil and gas drilling rights. They're messing with Malaysia and Korea. Why? Shipping lanes. I mean, all of this is designed for the grand plan, which you understand Xi, his father was in the Mao regime where he was assassinated when there was an assassination attempt on Mao.
So Xi's father was killed. So he'd been groomed to be this Maoist manifest destiny, rule the world and be the… And he has even said, "We want to have a socialism that is diferent than it's been in the past. He wants to kind of bridge the gap." And I'm not saying that's doable, not at all, but he's a moderate in his own mind at the very least while being ruthless and really freaking smart in terms of his domination vision of manifest destiny.
Mike Maharrey: Yeah. It's a crazy world out there. And I appreciate the fact it's a really good point that you kind of alluded to at least. The fact that we can love America and we can be pro – America and still look at the realities because we have to. We can't delude ourselves. If we do, we're just going to end up getting in more trouble. We have to keep our eyes open because that's the only way that can happen.
Greg Weldon: That applies a lot to the dollar, Mike, because one of the things that everyone was celebrating when they thought we were going to have a deal with Iran was it would bring them into Swift and keep petroleum on the dollar dime. We know China's not going to let that happen. China's pulled the strings. I mean, why do you think that the Houthis attacked the ship but just happened to miss today? Because it was bound for China with the Chinese crew on it. So come on, let's be real, man. It is. You have to look at the reality. I get paid to assess the risk and to tell people the truth. And sometimes that isn't pleasant. And sometimes I have to say things I wish I didn't have to say, but fact of the matter is the fact of the matter.
Mike Maharrey: Yep, you and me both. So, where can folks go to avail themselves of your knowledge and hear the truth as you were telling it?
Greg Weldon: Sure. We basically have two businesses. It's the research business. So, we do the global macro strategy report pretty much daily, at least four times a week I try. It's me and my assistant, so we're not a big shop and it's all 100% me. You get 100% of everything. There's no tiered services. I'm going to tell you everything. We also run a CTA Series three registered commodity trading advisory, individually managed accounts, no commingling of funds. You open an account at one of our brokers in your name, you have the account relationship with the broker, not with us. You get reports from the broker, StoneX, which is one of the biggest brokers out there, highly reputable. So we don't have anything to do with the money itself. We have an agreement with StoneX that you sign off on that we get paid from Stonex. So it's about as safe as can be.
And we don't have a lockup period. If you don't like what we're doing, you're out. It's basically futures, like to say 48-hour turnaround, can't guarantee anything anymore. But in that same context, if you're a money management client, you get a full, if you want it, not everyone does, but most people do, a full accounting of positions, wins, losses, open trade equity, every detail of the account every single morning. So the only way we can do this credibly is to be as transparent above board. We get no other income from brokerage or any other thing. We get paid what we sign on to get paid by you as a money manager. We have the broker who gets the commissions. And beyond that, that's about making it as simple and as transparent as it can be. Information on any of this, including sample reports, like some of the ones I mentioned today can be received by emailing me directly is the best way.
Greg Weldon: Greg, G-R-E-G, Weldon, W-E-L-D-O-N @weldononline, one word, Weldon Online. Find me on X @weldonlive. And then we do the podcast for free about once a month, kind of our own little gig where I'll talk about all these same things. It's on X @money_podcast and it's called Money, Markets and New Age Investing.
Mike Maharrey: Fantastic stuff. And I will say I get your market strategy reports and those things are fantastic. It would take me weeks to turn out one of those with all of the charts and the detail that's in them. So you're doing some fantastic stuff. So if people who are interested in that kind of detail need to check that out, I would highly encourage you to at least get a sample and see what Greg's doing because it's in depth and it's really good information. So I appreciate you. We are going to stay ahead of the curve these days for sure.
Greg Weldon: It's what we got to do, my friend.
Mike Maharrey: Well, I appreciate you taking time out of your day to hang out with me and always love to get your insights and I'm sure we'll talk to you again in the weeks and months ahead. Until then, I hope everything continues to go fantastically for you and we'll keep in touch.
Greg Weldon: Well then the biggest question is when does hockey season start? It's
Mike Maharrey: Coming. It starts a little bit earlier this year, in fact, because we've got two extra games. So I'll be excited about that.
Greg Weldon: Mike, you did a great job. Say hi to the Gleason Brothers for me. You all do fantastic work out there. So, my kudos to you. I'm happy to contribute.
Mike Maharrey: Will do. Thank you so much, my friend.
Greg Weldon: Take care.
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Another terrific interview with the fantastic Greg Weldon. The key takeaway for me there was his silver price prediction, which certainly sounds pretty dramatic. But I wouldn’t sleep on any prediction Greg makes, no matter how crazy it may seem. There is probably no one out there who sees things as well as our good friend Greg Weldon, and that’s why we love having him on so regularly.
Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And to check out any of our audio programs, including our second podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, just visit <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts">MoneyMetals.com/podcasts</a> or find them wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.
Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/">Money Metals Exchange</a>, thanks for listening and have a great weekend everybody.

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