Waiting On Mr. Donut

For as long as I can remember, we’ve referred to the guy who models GDPnow for the Atlanta Fed as “Mister Donut”. After a week of horrible to disastrous economic data, we await his latest update today in order to see if he moves his projection for Q3 into negative territory.

As you know, the US economy is already in recession by the long-accepted definition of two, consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For Q3, the GDPnow model began its guess at +2.1%. After briefly moving up to +2.5%, it has since fallen rapidly to the most recent guess of +1.6%. See below:…

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