Three Charts – One Conclusion -

Gold’s rallying again, and pulling silver and mining stocks <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/17/is-this-the-start-of-gold-and-silvers-next-leg-higher-005144">higher with it</a>.
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Of course, we’ve been tracking this closely in this letter, as you know, and providing lots of reasons for it.
Those have included the seasonality effects, the strong underlying demand from central banks and forward-looking investors, and the long-term drivers of debt and debt-service costs.
But it seems there’s something else afoot.
I’ve maintained that, while all investment markets are predictive by nature, gold and bonds are the most sensitive in sniffing out market imbalances and the sometimes-volatile rebalancings ahead.
As you’re about to see, warning signs are being delivered again right now.
There are lots of indicators out there flashing red, but a few in particular have caught my attention in recent days. They can be summarized by three compelling charts…
<figure class="image" style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-1-Gold-Breaks-Out–1-.jpg" width="800" height="484" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="Chart No. 1: Gold Breaks Out" />
<figcaption>Chart No. 1: Gold Breaks Out</figcaption>
</figure>
First, the easy one. Last week I announced in this letter that the bottoming process for gold was finished.
As you can see, the metal broke out of the price channel that has held the price in check since the summer began.
Again, seasonality has a role to play here. But the momentum of this move, when placed in context with other events, is an indication that <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price">gold may be sensing bigger issues at play</a>.
Which brings us to our next chart….
<figure class="image" style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-2-The-Biggest-Equities-Bubble-Ever.jpg" width="800" height="535" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="Chart No. 2: The Biggest Equities Bubble Ever" />
<figcaption>Chart No. 2: The Biggest Equities Bubble Ever</figcaption>
</figure>
We all know that the major stock indices have reached all-time highs, driven by the AI spending surge.
So is this a bubble in search of a pin?
The so-called “Buffett Indicator” — total equity market valuation divided by GDP — would indicate so. As you can see from the chart above (from <a href="https://enews.jeffersoncompanies.com/q/yUaKlQxBMvUqAVfT0XaZExfpoeH4-ifVIzUZcOJU1RFRkFOLkdMRUFTT05AaW5kZXBlbmRLlbnRsaXZpbmdidWxsaW9uLmNvbcOIIUz4SzrPf588VwSEsjPUoyFK_w" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://enews.jeffersoncompanies.com/q/yUaKlQxBMvUqAVfT0XaZExfpoeH4-ifVIzUZcOJU1RFRkFOLkdMRUFTT05AaW5kZXBlbmRLlbnRsaXZpbmdidWxsaW9uLmNvbcOIIUz4SzrPf588VwSEsjPUoyFK_w&amp;source=gmail&ust=1787073951825000&usg=AOvVaw2i8-sfjpX7gryauTJWOiaN" rel="nofollow noopener">TheTrading.tools</a>), the current valuation far exceeds levels reached in the Dot Com peak, the 2007 peak and the long-run median.
Note that this measure peaked in May and is beginning to roll over. Will there be an orderly decline, or the kind of crisis-driven liquidity vacuum that ended each previous peak?
The record shows that once things start to turn lower, there’s a rush to the exits and a full-blown crisis is soon spawned.
As you can see in our final chart, whether it’s prescience or simply a reaction to market pressures, the Fed is already preparing for something.
<figure class="image" style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-3-Federal-Reserve-Holdings-of-U.S.-Treasury-Bills-monthly-level.jpg" width="800" height="608" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="Chart No. 3: The Fed Reacts" />
<figcaption>Chart No. 3: The Fed Reacts</figcaption>
</figure>
If you’ve been actively doom-scrolling financial social media lately, you’ve no doubt come across this chart from a <a href="https://enews.jeffersoncompanies.com/q/fCUZl3U1Td3R51q00Xw4J0h9wgY4HU-qbH0ZcOJU1RFRkFOLkdMLRUFTT05AaW5kZXBlbmRlbnRsaXZpbmdidWxsaW9uLmNvbcOIoQBPdMGcf63Xo8nnbuHM8KEGSA" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://enews.jeffersoncompanies.com/q/fCUZl3U1Td3R51q00Xw4J0h9wgY4HU-qbH0ZcOJU1RFRkFOLkdMLRUFTT05AaW5kZXBlbmRlbnRsaXZpbmdidWxsaW9uLmNvbcOIoQBPdMGcf63Xo8nnbuHM8KEGSA&amp;source=gmail&ust=1787073951825000&usg=AOvVaw3EKOrTQl-AzRQVbKuHEYMB" rel="noopener">recent report</a> by the outstanding Hoisington Investment Management company.
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I urge you to read the full report, but the gist is that the Fed is already conducting stealth QE — just as it did in September 2019, in advance of the COVID shutdown.
Did the Fed predict COVID?
No, of course not. But it did see pressures already building in the repo market. And today, again, it’s reacting to underlying issues and concerns.
Again, it seems that something’s brewing.
I could add a fourth chart showing rising 10-year yields across developed economies, which is another sensitive indicator flashing red.
But this is enough for today…enough to tell us that it’s time to prepare.
To get Brien Lundin’s ongoing commentary on the markets at no charge, <a href="https://goldnewsletter.com/golden-opportunities-sign-up/?tblci=GiBdY-MYH1-nD-WW6UXCXAtHBPIEdPpDc50r48qPeOICrCDKuWUow8jry8SFw-EvMLzYPQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">click here</a> to subscribe to his free Golden Opportunities newsletter.

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