Silver is Finally Breaking Out—Here's What You Need to Know

Yesterday was an exciting day for silver, which surged 2.52% to a 13-year high, finally breaking above the key $34–$35 resistance zone I’ve been watching for months.
This is a level I’ve called "the line in the sand" to confirm a true breakout and the beginning of the next phase in the bull market.
What makes this move even more compelling is that it’s happening just as momentum around the March 31st ‘Buy Silver Day’ is accelerating and gaining solid media attention, which may be playing a key role in pushing silver through this long-standing barrier.
In this article, I’ll break down where silver stands now and what I’m watching next.
COMEX silver futures—the key benchmark I track rather than spot silver—finally closed above the critical $34–$35 resistance zone today on strong volume, marking a 13-year high.
This breakout is a major technical milestone and exactly what I’ve been anticipating as the trigger for the next powerful phase of the bull market. It’s a very bullish sign, but it’s important to note that COMEX silver futures must hold above the $35 level in order for the breakout to remain intact.
A drop back below that threshold would invalidate today’s move—something worth mentioning given the persistent manipulation in the silver market.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/00-silver-breakout-volume-picking-up.jpg" alt="silver breakout volume picking up" width="1041" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
What makes the current silver breakout particularly fascinating and promising is the backdrop of growing speculation around a potential silver squeeze.
In recent months, there’s been a scramble to bring physical silver onshore to the United States, leading to a sharp rise in COMEX inventories—up roughly two-thirds since December.
While the official explanation points to possible tariffs from the Trump administration on imported silver, there’s reason to believe that may only be part of the story.
Something larger may be unfolding behind the scenes—what exactly, no one knows for sure yet, but I believe it will become clear very soon.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/01-comex-depository-warehouse-silver-stocks.jpg" alt="comex depository warehouse silver stocks" width="760" height="557" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
Further confirming the scramble for physical silver is the surge in trading volume since December in the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), the most well-known physically backed silver exchange-traded product. In stark contrast, the non-physically backed iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen flat volume over the same period—highlighting a clear investor preference for products backed by actual silver.
From a technical standpoint, I’m watching for a decisive close above the $11.20–$11.80 resistance zone in PSLV, which would serve as another strong signal that the bull market is truly underway.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/02-silver-11-20-to-11-80-zone.jpg" alt="silver 11 20 to 11 80 zone" width="1046" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" /> The gold-to-silver ratio is a valuable tool for silver investors, offering insight into silver’s relative strength compared to gold from a technical perspective.
Over the past year, gold has outperformed significantly while silver has lagged—but that dynamic may be about to shift. Silver remains deeply undervalued relative to gold, and a correction in that imbalance appears imminent.
I’m now closely watching the 87–88 support zone in the gold-to-silver ratio; a decisive break below this level would signal that silver is poised to step into the spotlight—and even take the lead in the next leg of the precious metals bull market.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/03-silver-breakout-87-to-88-support-zone.jpg" alt="silver breakout 87 to 88 support zone" width="1042" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
The Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) is a custom indicator I developed to help validate and analyze silver’s price trends. It averages the prices of gold and copper—weighted so that copper (multiplied by a factor of 540) balances gold’s influence.
While silver itself isn’t included in the input, the SSPI has demonstrated a strong correlation with silver’s actual price action, providing valuable insight into its underlying market dynamics.
For much of the past year, the 2,600–2,640 zone has served as a key resistance level for the SSPI.
I’ve consistently stated that a breakout above this range would signal the start of a bull market in both the SSPI and silver—and that breakout occurred in early February.
Since then, the SSPI has moved steadily higher, which should continue to support silver’s upward momentum, especially as algorithmic trading reinforces the price relationships among the metals.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/04-silver-breakout-2600-to-2640-zone-uptrend.jpg" alt="silver breakout 2600 to 2640 zone uptrend" width="1038" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
Gold plays a major role in influencing silver’s price, and over the past year, it has been a standout performer—just yesterday breaking out to a new all-time high of $3,100 in COMEX futures.
With gold now holding firmly above the key $3,000 psychological level, the bias remains clearly to the upside. This continued bullish momentum in gold should create a strong tailwind for silver moving forward.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/05-gold-futures-2800-2900-3000-chart.jpg" alt="gold futures 2800 2900 3000 chart" width="1041" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
Turning to silver miners and their ETFs, I’ve seen quite a few people on social media expressing frustration today about miners lagging, even as silver posted strong gains.
My take on this is twofold: first, copper pulled back 2.3% today—and since many silver miners also produce copper, that likely weighed on their performance.
Second, miners often lag the underlying metal in the early stages of a rally. I believe this precious metals bull market will unfold in the following sequence: first gold, then silver, followed by gold miners, and finally silver miners. It’s a process that requires patience—but once it gets fully underway, I believe it will be well worth the wait.
The flagship silver mining ETF, the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), has had a strong month so far, gaining 16.44%. A few months ago, it broke out of a long-term triangle pattern dating back to 2011—an early signal that a major bull market in silver mining stocks was underway.
I’m now watching for a decisive close above the $48–$52 resistance zone to confirm the next leg higher and give the full green light for this emerging bull trend. It’s important to remember we’re still in the early stages, so staying patient and focused on the bigger picture is key. I’m using this chart as my roadmap for what’s to come.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/06-global-x-silver-miners-etf-long-term-triangle-pattern.jpg" alt="global x silver miners etf long term triangle pattern" width="1044" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
I also keep a close eye on the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ), which I find especially compelling because I believe the smaller silver miners have the most explosive upside potential in the coming silver bull market.
SILJ has been forming a long-term triangle pattern since 2013, and once it finally breaks out, I expect silver mining stocks to go ballistic.
Until then, I’m staying patient—it's still early, and there’s no need to stress. In fact, I’d prefer they don’t take off too quickly just yet, because I’m still looking to accumulate more at these levels!
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/07-amplify-etf-trust-junior-silver-miners-etf-long-term-triangle-pattern.jpg" alt="amplify etf trust junior silver miners etf long term triangle pattern" width="1044" height="814" class="mx-auto shadow-xl" />
To sum it up, things are really looking up for silver following COMEX silver futures’ breakout above the key $34–$35 resistance zone.
We’re also seeing breakouts in other currencies, including Australian dollars, Canadian dollars, Chinese yuan, and Singapore dollars. For full confirmation, I’m now watching for a decisive breakout in silver priced in euros and the other currencies mentioned earlier.
I see this not as a single binary event, but more like a spooling-up process—momentum building layer by layer. I wanted to give you all an early heads-up on what’s unfolding.
I’m feeling optimistic, but as I mentioned earlier, these breakouts need to hold above their key levels to remain valid. A strong follow-through over the next few days would go a long way in confirming that the silver bull market is truly underway.

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