It’s Real. And You Need To Be Ready For It. -

Last week I alerted you to the fact that gold seemed to be sensing something afoot in the markets and the global financial system.
Yes, gold, silver, and the mining stocks were r<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/17/three-charts-one-conclusion-005145">allying just as I’d predicted</a>, and right on time.
But there seemed to be more behind the move than simple seasonality…and the misplaced view that the Fed was going to be raising rates was getting exploded much earlier than I’d expected.
I showed you last week how gold had quickly and decisively broken through the trading range that had kept it corralled since June. Well, as you can see from an updated version of that chart, the rally has only gained momentum.
<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-1-Gold-Spot-USD-Brien-Lundin–1-.jpg" width="800" height="488" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />
That big move I’ve circled on the chart came last Wednesday, when gold jumped $180 to bolt <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price">past the key $4,500 level</a>. As you can see, it’s continued to power higher since then, including today, and has added yet another $150 to the price.
In short, this gold move is real. The next leg of the bull market is happening.
And to prepare for it, you need to understand it….
<h2>Not Quite The Signal That Was Intended</h2>
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As you’re probably aware, the big move in the metals last Wednesday was sparked by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of a doubling of buybacks for long-dated Treasury bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion.
My immediate reaction was that this was a nothingburger — essentially going from one drop in the bucket to two.
The markets didn’t take it that way.
Bessent and Co. apparently intended to signal to the markets that Treasury was in control, and wouldn’t allow long yields to keep climbing.
Equity investors interpreted it just a bit differently — they apparently saw a willingness, and intent, by Treasury to keep yields low anywhere across the curve.
That’s why stocks, bonds — and the metals/miners — surged immediately. The Treasury’s move wasn’t technically yield curve control yet, but it was control over yields.
Then…the rally in stocks petered out. Yes, the major indices closed in the green, but well below their highs for the session.
In contrast, gold, silver and mining stocks kept accelerating higher throughout the day. Gold closed up $188.50 (4.35%) to $4,521 on a spot basis, clearing important resistance at $4,500 as I noted above. Silver catapulted <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/silver-price">$3.68 (5.83%) to $66.89</a>. And the GDX and GDXJ jumped 9% and 10%, respectively.
So why the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/08/24/gold-and-silver-surge-as-treasury-intervention-shakes-markets-005158">big move in the metals</a>? Because as investors pondered Bessent’s move more deeply, they saw it as a sign of desperation.
In short, blood in the water.
That was the sense I had last week…and the subsequent market action only served to bolster that belief. To wit: 30-year Treasury yields have taken back almost all that was lost after Bessent’s announcement.
Note that Treasury bonds have rallied a bit today (yields fallen), after it was leaked that Bessent could use $1 trillion from the Treasury’s general fund for further bond buybacks to lower rates.
<figure class="image" style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Chart-2-Brien-Lundin.jpg" width="800" height="422" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />
<figcaption>30-Year Treasury Bond Yield</figcaption>
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This, too, will prove fruitless and temporary. Because Bessent’s attempt to show the Treasury’s strength…has only served to expose its weakness.
Combine the market’s response to erase Treasury’s flex in bonds with the big move into the metals, and I believe we’re seeing the first signs that mainstream investors are once again embracing the “debasement trade.”
Last Thursday morning on CNBC, in fact, the discussion was dominated by the size of the federal debt and deficits and the soaring costs of financing that debt. Imagine that!
The timing was perfect, as the federal debt broke through the $40 trillion big number on that same day. As I posted on X:
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<figcaption><a href="https://x.com/Brien_Lundin/status/2090182242588922196" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X post by @Brien_Lundin</a> </figcaption>
</figure>
Again, what I and so many others have been talking about for years has become today’s headlines. And it’s only the beginning, because the trajectory is only steepening and the math only gets harder.
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So is gold sniffing something looming just ahead?
In addition to the Treasury’s intervention in long bond yields with its recent intervention in the yen, plus the Fed’s rebuilding of its balance sheet, plus the ongoing roll-over of equity valuations from record levels…and more… and it does seem like something may be afoot.
We know that any major hiccup in the markets will lead to a flood of central bank liquidity that will far exceed anything done before. Gold may be seeing that, or at least the growing possibility of it.
But we don’t need that. The base case now is a typical restart of the bull market, as gold posts a fairly typical seasonal rebound, gaining about 15% from its lows, and with the mining equities rising about 30%, before the world gets back to work in September.
Anything on top of that merely means more gains on top of what will already be very generous rewards for those invested in this sector.
To get Brien Lundin’s ongoing commentary on the markets at no charge, <a href="https://goldnewsletter.com/golden-opportunities-sign-up/?tblci=GiBdY-MYH1-nD-WW6UXCXAtHBPIEdPpDc50r48qPeOICrCDKuWUow8jry8SFw-EvMLzYPQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">click here</a> to subscribe to his free Golden Opportunities newsletter.

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