How to Actually Lower Prices


<p>Last week, a Reuters poll found Republicans are running 18 points ahead on immigration, 20 ahead on crime, 12 on foreign policy, and 10 on the economy.</p>
<p>With one very dark cloud: inflation. Polling says Trump is underwater by 22 points on the second biggest election issue after immigration.</p>
<p>Now, to be fair, voters don&rsquo;t think Democrats have a plan on inflation either.</p>
<p>But prices are Trump&rsquo;s Achilles heel. Especially when he swore on the campaign trail, &ldquo;Starting Day One, Prices will come down fast&hellip; with everything.&rdquo;</p>
<p><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Economic-Matter-Important-Now-Opinion-of-Donald-Trump-Inflation-Cost-of-Living-Poll-Peter-St-Onge-Money-Metals-min.jpg&quot; width="800" height="160" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p>
<h2>Inflation: Slower but Still Going Up</h2>
<p>To be fair, inflation has slowed a lot, from 3% in Biden&rsquo;s final year to an average of 2.3% since Trump took office.</p>
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<p>This is largely because Congress slowed spending &mdash; federal spending is up 1.5% this year compared to 10% in Biden&rsquo;s last year.</p>
<p>Still, 2.3% is not &ldquo;prices coming down fast.&rdquo;</p>
<p>So what would it take?</p>
<h2>How to Lower Prices Fast</h2>
<p>In short, you&rsquo;ve got 2 options:</p>
<p>Either a mass culling of tens of thousands of crony regulations that&nbsp;collectively add 15% to 20%&nbsp;to the cost of everything you buy.</p>
<p>Including housing, where they add up to&nbsp;24% &mdash; $94,000.</p>
<p>Or &mdash; the nuclear option &mdash; a Wall-Street gutting selloff of trillions in assets the Fed bought with printed money.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Consumer-Price-Index-Components-Peter-St-Onge-Money-Metals-min.jpg&quot; width="800" height="489" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p>
<p>So the main parts of CPI inflation are:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><strong>Housing — 45%.</strong></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Food and energy — 25% (most of &ldquo;transportation&rdquo; is energy)</strong></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Healthcare — 8%.</strong></p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>And manufactured imports, which are about 10%.</strong></p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>House prices actually go up with rate cuts — which are finally happening — since lower mortgages bid prices up. So even with deregulation, it&rsquo;s hard to move that number.</p>
<p>On energy, prices are coming down — about 20% since Trump took office. But they could be down a lot more without red tape that held oil production down to just 2% this year &mdash; miles from &ldquo;Drill Baby Drill.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Meanwhile, on tariffs, foreigners, and middlemen are eating them so far, but a tax on imports obviously isn&rsquo;t making them cheaper.</p>
<h2>Food and Healthcare</h2>
<p>And that brings us to the big ones: Food and healthcare.</p>
<p>American food prices are roughly 15% higher because of red tape and mandates. While healthcare prices are double or more.</p>
<p>In fact, healthcare prices are driving the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/10/02/government-shutdown-founders-warnings-and-the-price-of-power-004375&quot; rel="noreferrer">current shutdown</a>.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Health-Spending-Countries-GDP-2022-Peter-St-Onge-Money-Metals-min.png&quot; width="800" height="333" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p>
<p>Deregulation in food includes letting farmers plant what they want, letting them sell direct to consumers, ending biofuel mandates, and getting rid of environmental straitjackets that wipe out family farms.</p>
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<p>In healthcare, the keys are price-transparency and cost-sharing, so hospitals have an incentive to cut prices &mdash; and so customers have an incentive to seek out lower prices.</p>
<p>Along with expanded scope of work, so you don&rsquo;t need a doctor for the sniffles &mdash; nurses or pharmacists are cheap. Repealing so-called CON laws, where hospitals can literally veto new competitors. And reigning in ambulance-chaser trial lawyers.</p>
<p>Trump&rsquo;s trying his best — including a DOGE-driven repeal of tens of thousands of regulations that aren&rsquo;t even authorized. But regulations are bought with good donor money.</p>
<p>So it&rsquo;ll be trench warfare.</p>
<h2>The Nuclear Option: The Fed</h2>
<p>And that brings us to the final rabbit in the hat: the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>Specifically, pawning off the $6 trillion of assets they bought with printed money during Covid.</p>
<p>6 trillion is nearly a third of the money supply. So pawning the Fed&rsquo;s massive balance sheet would effectively cancel almost one in three dollars.</p>
<p>Lowering prices by 30% across the board.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, Wall Street is so dependent on that flood of money that it could set off a financial panic. In fact, we got mini-panics in 2013 and 2019 when the Fed dipped its toe into pawning its 2008 stash &mdash; so-called &ldquo;Taper Tantrums.&rdquo;</p>
<p><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/WTF-Spike-Margin-Debt-Peter-St-Onge-Money-Metals-min.png&quot; width="800" height="693" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p>
<h2>What&rsquo;s Next</h2>
<p>Trump promised lower prices. But with Congress failing to actually cut spending, the only way we get them is either deconstruct the regulatory state.</p>
<p>Or gut Wall Street and damn the torpedoes.</p>

      



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