Hi Ho Silver! What a Wild Ride! -

Given the surge in silver prices, you might assume that silver demand was strong last year.
It wasn't.
In fact, demand fell slightly. 
So, how in the world did silver explode to record highs?
In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs deep into the recently released silver market data for 2025, explaining exactly what drove silver prices higher and why there is still plenty of upside remaining. 
He also shares some gold news that would have sounded ridiculous just a few years ago.
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Mike opens the show with a hypothetical scenario. 
<blockquote>
"If I told you there was a big football game between the top two teams in the league and the quarterback of one of those teams was injured and they had to play with an inexperienced backup, you would probably assume that team lost, right? I mean, it’s kind of intuitive, right? When certain conditions exist, we assume certain outcomes. But of course, real life sometimes surprises us. It doesn’t happen often, but every once in a while, that backup quarterback steps up and wins the game.
"So, if I told you that silver demand was down last year, and you didn’t know anything about the price movement, what would you assume? You’d probably think that the silver price dipped, or maybe at best was flat.
"Well, silver demand was actually down last year. And yet, we all know what the price did!
"How did this happen?"
</blockquote>
Mike highlights the final supply and demand data recently released by Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, noting that industrial demand was down, but was nearly offset by surging investment demand. When it was all said and done, overall demand was down about 2 percent. 
Meanwhile, silver mining supply rose modestly by 3 percent to 846.6 million ounces. Coupled with a 2 percent rise in recycling, which hit a 12-year high, total supply came in at 1.09 billion ounces. 
Even with a slight increase in supply and sagging demand, the silver market recorded its fifth straight market deficit. Demand outstripped supply by 40.2 million ounces (1,252 tonnes). That drove the 5-year market deficit to 716 million ounces. To put that into perspective, total silver mining output last year was 846 million ounces.
<blockquote>
"If we look at the bigger picture, before this string of successive market deficits, there was a cumulative above-ground stock rise of 243 million ounces between 2010 and 2020. Taken together, there has been a stock rundown of around 473 million ounces in the last 15 years.
"Metals Focus forecasts a 46.3-million-ounce supply deficit this year.
"And this explains why silver prices surged despite declining overall demand."
</blockquote>
Mike points out that when demand outstrips supply, silver users must tap into existing above-ground stocks. This typically requires rising prices to incentivize those holding silver to release it into the market. 
Looking at silver's price movement within these market dynamics, Mike calls the speed of silver's rally "truly astonishing," noting that the price didn't crack $40 until September. Silver took off in October as a squeeze gripped the market. 
<blockquote>
"A convergence of factors from market dynamics to logistical problems led to an unprecedented silver shortage. While the market dynamics that got us here might be difficult to untangle, the situation is about as basic as it gets. There’s not enough silver, as you’ve already seen from the supply and demand data."
</blockquote>
Mike explains the anatomy of the silver squeeze, tracing its roots back to the flow of metal to New York in April 2025 after Trump began levying tariffs. 
Silver has flowed back to London, easing some of the pressure, but as Mike notes, the underlying market dynamics haven't changed. 
<blockquote>
"There is still a shortage of metal. And unlike fiat currency, governments can’t just print silver."
</blockquote>
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Mike wraps up the show with some gold news. 
<blockquote>
"If you had told most people a few years ago that we’d be seriously talking about $8,000 gold today, they would have thought you were crazy. Well, we’re crazy. Wells Fargo analysts just set $8,000 as their bullish target for gold next year."
</blockquote>
Wells Fargo analysts say the bullish scenario is being driven by the "debasement trade."
<blockquote>
"The 'debasement trade' is the fancy term Wall Street came up with to describe <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898">de-dollarization</a>. As the dollar (along with other fiat currencies) depreciates, central banks and other institutions are dumping them for a “more neutral” safe haven. That neutral safe haven is gold. It is money without <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/buy-gold-and-silver-to-hedge-against-counterparty-risk-003015">counterparty risk</a>."
</blockquote>
Wells Fargo analysts say we're in the fourth identifiable cycle of debasement in modern history. These cycles tend to last around 8 years, meaning we're not even halfway through the current cycle. 
Two factors are driving the debasement trade – <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/14/us-government-spending-addiction-drives-yet-another-big-monthly-deficit-004836">America's fiscal mess</a> and the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013">weaponization of the dollar</a>. 
Debasement cycles tend to correspond with a major crisis, such as the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis. This one feels a little different, given that there arguably isn't a true crisis currently. Mike says the pandemic may be key to understanding the current debasement cycle. 
<blockquote>
"When the world locked down, the Federal Reserve cranked up the dollar printing press to an unprecedented level. The central bank created nearly $5 trillion and pumped it into the economy in just two years. That is the very definition of 'debasement.'
"The world was watching. 
"Think about it. Why would anybody want to hold a rapidly devaluing currency that can be used against you as a foreign policy weapon?"
</blockquote>
Mike says this may go beyond a crisis, instead signaling the early stages of a significant shift in the global financial system.
<blockquote>
"The world seems to be moving toward a 'multipolar' system with the dollar playing a smaller role. That's bad news for a U.S. economy that depends on demand for dollars to support its relentless borrowing, spending, and money creation."
</blockquote>
Mike notes that the Wells Fargo analysts do see one possible economic scenario bearish for gold, but that is in contrast to four bullish trajectories.  The Wells Fargo base case forecast is $6,000 to $6,300 gold this year.
<blockquote>
"So, there is still plenty of upside, even if the super-bullish scenario doesn’t play out. That means these big dips, like we had yesterday, are buying opportunities."
</blockquote>
Mike closes the show with a call to action, urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today, pointing out that with all the uncertainty in the world, one thing is certain. The government will continue to devalue your money.
<h2>Articles Mentioned in the Show</h2>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/04/16/the-inflation-tax-youre-still-paying-for-that-covid-stimulus-004840">The Inflation Tax: You're Still Paying for that Covid Stimulus</a>
Change in above-ground silver stocks.<img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/cumulative-silver-drawdown-25.png" width="556" height="351" class="mx-auto p-3" alt="" />

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