Greg Weldon Exclusive: Unstoppable Forces Driving Metals Prices Higher


<p>Welcome to this week&rsquo;s Market Wrap Podcast, I&rsquo;m Mike Gleason.</p>
<p>Coming up don&rsquo;t miss another incredible interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial.&nbsp;Greg weighs in on the slumping dollar and what he sees there as more and more countries shift away from U.S. Treasuries and alternatively increase their gold holdings. He also chimes in on why he believes that even despite central bank and large players constantly meddling in the markets the underlying forces that have been driving metals prices higher simply can&rsquo;t be stopped.</p>
<p>Greg also warns about how the rapid rise in precious metals prices over the last year or more could point towards some volatility in the future but suggests that investors take a long term buy and hold approach when it comes to their holdings of gold and silver.</p>
<p>So be sure to stick around for Mike Maharrey&rsquo;s interview with one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week&rsquo;s market update. And if you enjoy this material please do us a favor and like and subscribe this podcast wherever you consume this content.</p>
<p>Some big news in the silver market this week &ndash; and I&rsquo;m not just talking about how we just hit $40 an ounce on the silver price &ndash; but more on that in a moment. The other noteworthy development for the white metal is that the U.S. Department of the Interior wants to add silver to its list of critical minerals. The list guides federal strategy, investment, and mine permitting decisions.</p>
<p>Inclusion on the list can make projects eligible for federal funding, subject to a streamlined permitting process, or more competitive due to fees placed on imports.</p>
<p><a href="https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-16311.pdf?tblci=GiA89mufn_Y7xcLNIFck1kEZiWsyOrx-UKj19uVsM5QAeyDKuWUo6f2jsK-GheN8MObpQA&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">The draft notice</a>&nbsp;includes 54 minerals, recommending the addition of potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead, along with the removal of arsenic and tellurium.</p>
<p>The Department of the Interior analyzes supply chain vulnerabilities as part of the list creation process.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the&nbsp;list of critical minerals "<em>provides a clear, science-based roadmap to reduce our dependence on foreign adversaries, expand domestic production, and unleash American innovation.</em>&rdquo;</p>
<p>The inclusion of silver on the list of critical minerals underscores the growing importance of the metal and could signal worries about the lack of domestic supply.</p>
<p>Adding silver to the list could benefit domestic silver miners by streamlining permitting and easing some of the regulatory burden.</p>
<p>Silver conducts electricity better than any metal at room temperature. That makes it a vital input in the electronics and computing sectors. For instance, silver is an important component in solar panels, accounting for at least 20% of total silver consumption each year.</p>
<p>Silver is also crucial in defense applications. The world&rsquo;s militaries use a substantial amount of the metal, although exact numbers are difficult to pinpoint due to the secretive nature of the military-industrial complex.</p>
<p>About 60 percent of global silver offtake is for industrial purposes.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/04/17/silver-market-records-fourth-straight-supply-deficit-amidst-record-industrial-demand-003994&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Industrial demand for silver set a record</a>&nbsp;last year, and it continues to grow.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the silver supply has become increasingly tight. Demand outstripped the silver supply for the fourth consecutive year in 2024.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Sagging supply is likely one of the factors driving the decision to include silver on the list of critical minerals.</p>
<p>Metals Focus forecasts that while we will see record silver prices over the next five years,&nbsp;mine supply growth is likely to remain modest, with only minimal increases globally.</p>
<p>The reason that silver production doesn't ramp up to meet the demand and take advantage of these higher prices is because more than half of silver is mined as a byproduct of base metal operations.</p>
<p>In other news, the establishment financial media was in a tizzy this week over President Donald Trump's firing of&nbsp;<a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/Q6M-QM92elM?feature=shared&amp;amp;tblci=GiA89mufn_Y7xcLNIFck1kEZiWsyOrx-UKj19uVsM5QAeyDKuWUo6f2jsK-GheN8MObpQA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fed Governor Lisa Cook</a>, a Biden appointee accused of mortgage fraud. They complain that this firing is an assault on the Fed's independence.</p>
<p>In reality, though, the notion of 'Fed independence' is a myth.</p>
<p>Most recently, the Fed played politics last year by slashing rates to stimulate the economy heading into a tough presidential election for the incumbent Democrats.</p>
<p>And the Fed suddenly got stingy as soon as Trump got elected — halting rate cuts for almost a year so far.</p>
<p>But here's the big picture…</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is an inherently political institution — not only because the seven members of its Board of Governors are appointed by the President with Senate confirmation, but also because America's entire monetary system is political in nature.</p>
<p>We no longer have sound money backed by gold but political money, where policymakers centrally plan the economy via market interventions — including changes to monetary policy.</p>
<p>By design, the Fed engages in price fixing activity by setting the price of money (i.e., interest rates) — and it bails out the federal government by funding its debt when market participants will not.</p>
<p>Since the Federal Reserve was launched in 1913, the value of the currency has plunged 99%.<br />On the other hand, inflation was almost non-existent throughout the first 125 years of our constitutional republic, when the dollar was defined as a particular weight of gold and silver — and there was no permanent central bank.</p>
<p>It seems today the Fed 'losing its independence' is code for the Fed "cutting rates at the same time Trump wants it to do so."</p>
<p>In reality, though, Wall Street also desires <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/31/hurry-up-and-wait-the-fed-stands-pat-at-july-meeting-004233&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">lower interest rates</a>&nbsp;right now.</p>
<p>The federal government appears desperate for lower rates, too, since its annual debt service costs are now well above $1 trillion and rising. After all, the Treasury needs to refinance over $10 trillion in federal debt by next year, not counting the need to finance the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/08/14/feds-runs-another-massive-budget-deficit-in-july-despite-surge-in-tariff-revenue-004266&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">current budget deficit</a>.</p>
<p>For these and other reasons, lower rates appear inevitable.</p>
<p>This means we should soon expect a period of more steeply negative real interest rates where the true inflation rate is higher than interest rates. And that's <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/08/26/a-major-move-is-ahead-for-interest-rates-004293&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">rocket fuel for gold</a>.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve System has played a key role in getting us into the current predicament of inflation, runaway federal spending, and runaway debt.</p>
<p>The purchasing power of the Federal Reserve Note against real assets, especially gold and silver that cannot be printed or debased, continues to be on the chopping block. Americans would be wise to prepare accordingly.</p>
<p>Before we get to this week&rsquo;s interview let&rsquo;s take a look at the weekly market action in the metals. Gold is up $75 for the week now to come in at $3,459 an ounce, good for a weekly gain of 2.2%.</p>
<p>Silver meanwhile is pushing up above $40 and is up nearly $1 or 2.5% and currently checks in at $40.04 as of this Friday late morning recording.</p>
<p>The PGMs are fairly muted this week, with platinum unchanged at $1,373 and palladium off 2.1% to trade at $1,128 an ounce.</p>
<p>Well now, for more on the recent action in metals prices and a whole lot more, let&rsquo;s get right to our exclusive interview.</p>
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<p><strong>Mike Maharrey: </strong>Greetings. I'm Mike Maharrey, a reporter and analyst here at Money Metals, and I have today with me Greg Weldon. He is a man of many hats. He has multiple decades of trading experience. He produces independent, global macro market research for financial institutions and investors, and it's always a thrill to talk to you, Greg. How are you doing today? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> I have many hats. I even take out the garbage at night. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Well, somebody's got to do that. Somebody's got to <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> I do it. I'll do whatever it takes. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Yeah, exactly. We do what we have to do, right? Well, right now you suggested that for this interview we could just take a victory lap and call it a day. I'm going to let you take that victory lap and then I might have a few questions for you. But what's going on good today, man? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Well, I mean the victory lap scenario comes from the simple fact that you're basically, if you were to close the month out here, meaning tomorrow where you are, you're at new weekly all-time closing highs in gold, in silver, in the GDX, it's a multiyear. And then the SIL, it's a multiyear, the SALJ, it's a multiyear. And you look across the board at the mining shares, particularly the ones that we have really favorite it like Ken Ross, like Pan American, like Newmont, like New Gold, like even Hela. I am Gold, D-R-D-A-G-I-A-E-F. Take your pick. I mean, they're all screaming higher today. And when you talk about specifically the dynamic around silver, again, it really gives us this chart pattern where you have levels that in the past someone has stepped on it and someone has tried to keep this market in check. We could talk all day about conspiracy theories, paper shorts, the bullion banks, the powers that be. <br /><br />And it's funny because I remember one of the first interviews I did literally way back the first time I was on television was in 1990 on Financial News Network was Sue Herera and Bill Griffin that soon became CNBC when NBC bought Financial News Network. They were based in LA at the time. And the first time I was on, and it's kind of interesting because I was asked the question, you think that the gold market is manipulated? I'm like, yeah, of course. Wake up. Of course, it's manipulated this my entire career even up to then, which was barely 10 years. I had been in the gold pit, in the silver pit and I was on the floor. You get to know all the major players when you're on the floor, whether it be the bullion banks and London, the Middle Eastern accounts or the arbitrage accounts, the silver between Chicago, remember it had a Chicago market with a very active ARB. <br /><br />So, it's a lot different now, but the one thing that doesn't change is number one, human nature and number two, that the markets are always manipulated. Every market, every currency, every bond, every, so yes, of course these markets are manipulated, but in the context of looking at silver and where it is now, it reminds me of some of the 1990s currency interventions, particularly when the Asian tiger currencies first got out of whack when they first started showing year over declines in exports in 1997. And that was the first thing that caught my eye. The first time that Thailand had posted a year over year decline in exports, I was all over it. The Thai bot was breaking down and we got out, we got involved, and it was one of the biggest trades that I had in the 1990s along with the British pound in 92, which I also participated in. <br /><br />But the central banks come in and they intervene. They intervene, they intervene, and yeah, they might smooth the move, but they can't stop it. And in this case, that is the silver dynamic, at some point, the dam breaks and all hell breaks loose. And I think you're pretty much right on the verge of seeing that happen. Now we have had a couple false starts in silver, but again, I think that this time just looks different. It feels different. And the way the chart pattern is this is going to close very strongly unless you get someone to come in and really knock it for a loop tomorrow, this is going to set up from a technical basis to mark the beginning of the next leg higher. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>I was talking to a technical analyst not too long ago about this silver market and he mentioned the fact that he likes seeing this kind of pattern where you get a leg up and then the consolidation and a leg up and then the consolidation. He said that that's a pretty healthy way to have a market running upward. Do you agree with that? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> I do. I would say in the silver market it's been more herky-jerky than it's a leg up and then you kind of consolidate the leg up. It's like you get to a certain level and you pound it back down and you get back up to that level and it takes time and you pound it back down. And for the bulls out there, including myself, and I'm a trader, but I'm a money manager too, so I'm not in and out all the time. I want a position I hold for months, literally. So it's difficult to get a position. You have been able to hold onto here if you have any kind of tight risk metrics, but I'm a very low risk trader, so it's been a little frustrating where you're in, you get stopped out, you're in, you get stopped out, you're in, you get stopped out. <br /><br />And I have found that when you're fighting the interventions, and I have also by the way, in the situation around really the pre-tech bubble blow up in 1999, 2000, and even more specifically in 2007 with the German DAX in particular, you got these markets to where they would break to a certain point and then snap back because someone's buying, someone's intervening, someone's trying to support the market, and ultimately when you crack it, the move is huge. So yeah, I kind of like where you're going with that. I'm not sure it applies here. And in the case of gold, there's no consolidation. This thing's straight up, it's parabolic. And what's so interesting to me is that open interest remains historically low in gold. So this is only the beginning of a move of what I call Wall Street money out of AI out of mag-seven into mag-silver. <br /><br />I think I said this last time I was on your show, it's going to be like you're going to start hearing from your retail investors. If you're a Wall Street money guy, whether you're passively invested or trying to outperform by capturing the top stocks in the AI and the chip sector, the momentum in those stocks is gone. We've talked about this now for the last two or three months actually, the thought process around getting AI into products that you can sell to customers to actually make money, it's still two steps if not three steps away. So this whole dynamic around, and they talk about Nvidia and only a couple of their customers account for almost all their profits. I mean, this seems problematic for me to think that this is going to be a driving force in the stock market and as you go forward and as Powell manipulates, if you will, I hesitate to get political about it. <br /><br />I think that a lot of things, Powell, that Trump has done are quite good. I meant Trump &ndash; that is quite good, and I think he's made some mistakes too along the way. There's no reason you can't be critical, even if you like the guy, right? Even though the Trumpians will pass you all day long, that when you're talking about this situation with the Fed, this really does kind of change things and it will make sitting on top of these markets so much more difficult and it will cause the retail investor to begin asking good question of their money managers, of their portfolio managers, of their global wealth managers, they're advisors. What precious metals do I own? Do I own gold? And if you even were to go to a 3% allocation in Wall Street, money and gold, it's the tip of the iceberg, what we've seen already. So the fact that gold is done when it's done because of Chinese and BRICS buying and not because of a speculative run as per the Comex open interest or not because of a rotation of Wall Street capital. This is only beginning and that's what makes it really exciting and if not somewhat scary too because as the rewards go up, so too does the risk. Right? <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Right. Were you surprised that after the last run up with silver got up above $35 an ounce, that they weren't able to pound it back down below that level? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Yeah, no, it's been this $35 to $36.50 zone has been a real key battleground. I mean, it's kind of been the demilitarized zone and now you've kind of pushed past it. So, now if you're the army pushing forward to the upside, you have that captured ground now behind you. So, that puts you in a position where you have the defense much on its heels right here, and a close of above $40 and silver is going to make headlines and that's going to bring a whole new wave of buying in. And my only concern a little bit about silver, and I almost hesitate to say this, is that you have all the avid silver people are in. You don't kind of have that same participation in gold. So you couldn't even see this kind of market that still continues to favor gold over silver, even though I do believe you get gold silver ratio back to 60, then you're looking at a silver price above $50. I think that's inevitable, but it's not a one-way street. It's not going to be a clear shot. They're not going to make it easy, for sure. They never do. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Did you see the other day the federal government released its proposed list for strategic minerals and silvers on that list? So is copper incidentally. Those were two new additions. Do you think that has any significance maybe for the mining sector here in the United States? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Absolutely. I mean, you could make a case, frankly. I mean this really kind of applies more to these rare earth nano metals and DYS pros and some of the space, age metals that you need for future space exploration and spaceships and multidimensional metals and metals that can change shapes and all these different types of things where China controls the supply. I think looking to become, if this is a more strategic metal, is positive, but it also suggests you will begin to try and mine more supply. So you have to keep in mind too that these kinds of things also open the door for a greater metal to coming in on the supply side. So, I don't think it's necessarily, again, a one-way street, but right now, to me, the biggest thing remains the dollar and the biggest thing remains pushing India around and pushing India towards China and Russia and making the bricks unit even more of a necessity for these countries. And that is still the biggest driving force is the dollar dynamic, the Fed and all these other things beyond what we talk about in terms of strategic metals. But absolutely it helps. There's no doubt that that's a positive kind of tell. That's a positive kind of background theme for sure, for all these metals. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Yeah. Let's talk a little bit about the dollar. I saw today somebody put up a chart and it shows that for the first time since I think 1996, we have a situation where foreign central banks now hold more gold than treasuries. How do you see this d dollarization playing out? You kind of think we're going to continue to see this kind of slow rotation. Could it pick up speed? How do you kind of see the trajectory of the dollar right now? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Yeah, I mean I think it's kind of in full force already and has been really for the last two years. If you think about it, when you talk about how much of their treasury holdings the Chinese has sold and gone from $1.35 billion to less than $800 billion, they've actually bumped up a little bit. They bought some treasuries most recently, which is kind of surprising. But they're still buying more gold and they're buying anything. I think this is global. I think this is again, still early stage. And as you get closer to making the BRICS unit a reality, which again, you don't hear much about it, Trump bashes it, but you know dang well that behind closed doors, this is more of a sense of urgency among these countries than ever before. They want to get away from the dollar, from away from sanctions, from terrorists, from trade wars, from seizing assets, from all of these things that the US has used because of the rights of senior age that the dollar has afforded them. <br /><br />That is a much of a secular erosion dynamic that will continue pretty much for as far out as we could see. So again, this is still early stage, and I wouldn't even say the dollar has taken the brunt of that hit yet. I think that what lays in store for the bond market is really interesting in terms of how they react to a Fed that will, and I've said this on your show dating back to even last year at some point in this year, and we thought it might happen by June, and it took a little longer than we thought that the Fed would be forced to acquiesce to higher inflation to protect growth, the consumer, the housing market, the labor market, and even the bond market, you have tremendous amounts of supply that need to be sold. You can talk all day long about tariffs and how much money it's bringing in. <br /><br />It's a drop in the bucket. It's nothing compared to our debt, our deficits, our daily need to continue to borrow money. And when you start to look at the yield curve, which I said at the beginning of 2024, the biggest trend in fixed income right now, and really the only trend in fixed income was steeper yield curves around the world. And man, that has continued now into what's the 19th and 20th month of this trend where the yield curves around the world. We saw it in Germany today, for example, when the Buddhist, the European Central Bank released the minutes of the July meeting, which were pretty eye opening. I got to tell you, I did a big special report on that. You really want to hear what the ECB had to say here, because what you're looking at is stagflation. And again, that fits in with a dynamic where specifically the dollar is lower and you have the yield curve steepening, and at some point in time you face a bond auction that's going to be really sloppy. <br /><br />And then you're going to realize we're the world's largest creditor nation who has to sell bonds perpetually and seemingly ever larger supply at a time when the buyers were withdrawing in the backdrop, which ultimately leaves the Fed. I mean, so you want to talk QE, let's talk. I think the real kind of debate here should be how soon do we think QE restarts and how does that play out with the yield curve? How does that play out with the bond market? How does that play out with fed policy and how does that all play out with the dollar? And I'll say that the end of the day, all of that is dollar bearish, and that means it's bullish for the metals. <br /><br /><strong>Mike Maharrey: </strong>I talked about the likelihood of QE in relation to the bond market in my own podcast a couple of weeks ago. So yeah, we're definitely on the same page with that. You used an interesting term I kind of picked up on, you talked about the fed &lsquo;acquiescing&rsquo; to inflation, and I've been hammering that point for a long time. And a lot of people say, no, no, no, this isn't, we don't have inflation. It's not inflationary. Can you kind of explain what you mean by that? <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Yeah, well, you say we don't have inflation. Well, first of all, every inflation measure is still notably above the fed's target. I mean, the fed's nowhere near declaring victory on inflation, especially Mike, when you take the service sector inflation, if you take the CPI, there's 118, I think 114 components of service prices, ex-energy services. Energy services are only electricity, natural gas, which are both very high by the way. Electricity is back up to 5%, for example. You want to talk about inflation, we don't have inflation when you pay your electric bill, you know have inflation, right? So don't kid yourself. But when you take that, you still have 40 something percent of those, I forget the exact number, 42, 40% of the 118 sub components of service price CPI service prices are above 4% year over year. Alright? Let alone that over 60% are above 3% year over year that there's 20 something percent above 5% over year, over year. Alright? How many are actually at target or below? 12%. <br /><br />So when you talk about service price inflation, it's still very virulent and the dynamic around it being double the fed's target. So if you're going to say the Fed is thinking about cutting rates, then you got to start to talk to yourself, well where's inflation? Where's the real fed funds rate? How much room do they maybe have to cut rates? And at some point in time, because inflation is above target that you'll be talking about bringing rates to a level that are stimulative relative to the rate inflation to protect growth because you need the growth. Without the growth, you can't service the debt. If you can't service the debt, you have a debt deflation. And the Fed will tell you and any central bank, I wrote this in my book in 2006 when I predicted the Fed would monetize treasury debt and it was considered a kook for saying it. <br /><br />And two years later it's exactly what they were doing because they had two. When we made these choices back in the 1990s last time, we could have paid down debt and it had organic growth. No, that's not what we chose to do. So now it's one path, it's the pipe piper path and it extends the pain. Alright, this is about the human condition. Nobody wants to pay the piper. So what do we do? We kick the can down the road, we string it out because stringing it out is preferable to having a BAM one-off debt deflation. And every central banker when staring into that debt, deflation abyss will choose to reflate at any cost. And we're headed in that direction in the US for sure. And using the dollar as the means to kind of keep us floating. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Yeah, it's interesting too. You talk about the service inflation, and that was really obvious in the PPI data that we got. It's really hard to blame service inflation on tariffs. <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Yeah, you can't. And you really bring up a really good point because the most recent CPI followed the next day by P-P-I-P-P-I was even more like eye-opening because it was both intermediate and finished goods. Now, and the service sector here too, even in PPI, they have service PPI. And again, it's the same thing when you're talking about at the intermediate level. This is inflation in the pipeline that is coming that's going to push inflation even higher in the near term on the headline readings, and we're talking about all of this sands really any significant energy price inflation, if you look at the energy prices, I mean there's still kind of negative year over year. Gasoline is going to get to a point here in September when you come to the September numbers, which you don't get until October, but you're looking at, you can very easily gauge the base effect in energy based on the strip in the futures market on gasoline, where it is in the future and where it was at the same time last year. <br /><br />And what I can tell you is right now you're still running at about anywhere from five to 10% deflation on a year over year basis. That's about to flip without prices even going up from here. Or you're about to have a positive 10% or so rate of inflation implied by energy that you haven't had positive energy impact on CPI for well over a year. So, when you throw that into the mix, when you throw the fact that fluid continues to creep higher, I think that the writing's on the wall, it really is. And I think that that puts kind of the stock market in harm's way too. And then that's a whole other ball of wax. You got to talk about if you get any kind of disinflation in stocks and how quickly the Fed could react to something like that. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Yeah. So let me ask you to try to put yourself in Jerome Powell's brain. Good luck with that. &nbsp; <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Do I have to? &nbsp; <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>We're going to give it a shot because you painted a pretty negative picture on inflation. And I agree with you. I see all of the exact same things and we still have, if you believe the GDP, if you believe some of the economic metrics, we still have strong employment. Why is Jerome Powell talking about cutting? <br /><br /><strong>Greg Weldon: </strong> Because he knows that that's a faulty narrative. I mean, honestly, because, and it's funny because there's a few people that I respect that are on TV every now and then, and I don't watch a lot of the financial news anymore because it's such a rah-rah cheerleading, bunch of self-interest. It's vested self-interest to be long stocks because every guy, they have on is a stockbroker or a stock fund manager of some kind. But even some of the people that I really have respected through my career now they're coming on and they use the word strong for the economy, for the labor market and for the consumer. There's nothing strong about the labor market here. Absolutely not. I could use all kinds of statistical metrics, facts, math, statistics to belie that narrative. Same with the consumer when you're talking about revolving credit now deflating on a relative rolling basis. <br /><br />There's only two other times we've seen that in US history, which is during the pandemic and during the 2008, 2009 crisis. And now why is he cutting? Because you haven't had revolving credit, you have a credit crunch, you have a consumer that has the most credit ever borrowed at the highest rates ever with delinquency rates that are only higher in 2009. That's the problem. And it applies to auto loans too. I mean auto loans now with the delinquency rate above 5%, you didn't even see that back in 2009. So when you kind of put all this together and then you take the fed's New York household survey, which is a treasure trove of information, what you see is consumers, especially at the lower income levels, expect very little income and earnings growth anywhere from as low as 1% nominally to maybe up towards 2.4% nominally against inflation expectations that remain above three. <br /><br />So, what does that tell you? It tells you the lower half of the income scale in terms of households expect that their earnings slash income will deflate on a real basis by as much as 2% over the next 12 months. And then you see that the people that feel that they will be less financially healthy 12 months from now, that speaks volumes to where the consumer really is. The consumer has cocooned. We've seen it in terms of discretionary spending. We've seen it in terms of sales and eating and drinking establishments, which is the be all and end all of discretionary spending. You have a feelgood factor, you're more likely to go out for dinner and a nicer place. What do you have? You have McDonald's now cutting menu items. Why? Because they say they have less traffic, less people buying. So to maintain their own margins, they got to cut back on their offerings to try and manage their own costs. <br /><br />And when you start talking about you had the rotation of, okay, the high end restaurant chains got hit first, but the low end fast food, were still chugging along. Now when the low end fast food starts to show signs of consumer pushback and consumers cocooning to some degree, which I call it the consumer cocoon, that's a real telltale side. So to me, the labor market, which I could rip apart because you have more people dropping out than getting jobs, and that's the only reason the unemployment rate hasn't risen. The only reason you also have more people working part-time for economic reasons they can't find full-time jobs. So that is not a healthy labor market. So you take the labor market, the consumer, the retail sales, the revolving credit, you take the expectations and all the thought process where the consumer's head is at. It's a bad scenario going forward. <br /><br />And I think that this whole narrative around labor market strong, consumer strong is going to be dashed, in the not too distant future. And I would say by the end of the year, and I think Jerome Powell knows that. And at the same time, let's not forget with a four and a quarter fed funds rate, the Fed is punitively restrictive right here and was still running 535 billion on a rolling 12-month basis in QT. This is tight policy, man. At the very least you can make a case, they should be neutral already. So I'm not one for bashing the Fed. That's a tough job I would never want, he couldn't pay me enough to do that job. Alright? And yes, Powell has been late at the turn on each turn that we've seen since he took over in 2018. He's behind the curve every step of the way. <br /><br />He's behind the curve now and he knows it, but at the same time, tariffs gave him his out. You were worried about tariffs causing higher inflation. The Fed didn't necessarily want to come off that level, but they're going to come off now. They're going to come off I think hard and then we'll see. I also could make a case, this might be a little kind of obtuse, but if you were to say that the Fed by waiting has kind of blown their opportunity to get to neutral, right? Because if inflation start to rise now with them cutting, they're going to go immediately. It's almost stimulative. Now that may not be a bad thing, but it wouldn't it be better to kind of being step by step here where you took a little less restrictive, now you're neutral right Now you have the opportunity to go stimulative. But in the meantime, when inflation starts to rise and then they're cutting, it's going to look like exactly what I said, they're acquiescing to higher rates of inflation to protect growth. And that's going to be a big dollar negative. It will enhance and exacerbate the pressure on the dollar. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Yeah. So how as a precious metal investor do you look at this situation <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Just be long. I mean, this is a buy and hold mentality right here for sure. In my mind. It has been on the equity side for a while and now it's starting to kind of come into full view with the metals themselves. I know that a lot of people, and I said this way, way back, man, I said this two years ago probably here on your show as well, that this would be the kind of market where you have all this central bank buying and all of a sudden it seems like this, a high price has gotten high. So we want to wait for a pullback that you're never going to get. And you've already had this huge move where a lot of people are not involved. And I said, you will find that people will be chasing this market higher and that's where you are now. <br /><br />And it is tough because if you're not involved right now, that's the big question. And frankly, that's one of those things like look, people like you and I and a lot of smart people, certainly a lot of your followers, I know you have a very intelligent crowd, so they're probably in. And if they're not, then it's kind of like, well, don't ask me now, this what used to be a broker and especially worked on the other way. It's like you recommend a trade and it's not working and you call the client, you say, it's not working. I think you should get out. And the client says, no, I'm going to hold it. You say, no, I really think you should get out. He's like, no, I'm going to hold it. And then a week later, the guy's getting crucified and he calls you, he says, what do I do now? I say, don't ask me that question. I told you what to do. He didn't listen. So, I mean, there's some sense of that kind of using tongue in cheek, that thought process here that you kind of, do you just blindly buy it here? I don't know. Don't ask me. We're long already. And I don't know how to answer that question. I really don't. I think the market will go much higher. I think the risk is now higher because the moves are so much exaggerated. And now a simple 2% move means a lot more dollars in the price of gold. Take a futures contract, it's a hundred ounces of gold. So right now the futures contracts were $350,000 versus around $150,000 three years ago. So the risk on a normal percentage move day in and day out is much higher here too. So that makes it even more tricky. <br /><br />I would say that someone's not involved right now. One of the better ways would be to find a commodity trading advisor that does this for a living. That can be in and out long and short, everything, currencies, bond markets, even stock indexes. You want to be long and short, some of these currencies, long and short, some of these bond markets long and short, somebody stock indexes, let alone being involved in the precious metals markets to where you can be long and kind of maxed out and leveraged and still manage the risk in a much more specific manner. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Excellent advice. Well, before I let you go, I do want you to let folks know where they can avail themselves more deeply to your knowledge. So tell us where they can find Greg Weldon and maybe even get involved with the services you offer. <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Well, you can find me on the golf course, the gym or in my office or sleeping on the couch. Those are the four places you're likely to find me. <br /><br />But if you want some information, you can always email me at GregWeldon@weldononline.com. We do the global macro strategy report, which is daily specific recommendations in foreign exchange, fixed income, global stock index futures, all the commodities, energies, precious metals, industrial metals, all the food and ag. And by the way, going forward, one of these things in this environment going forward, especially when you talk about some of the physics of the planet, what's happening here and how this is going to become increasingly turbulent and volatile, that means food prices are going to be much more volatile and it would behoove people to be involved in some of those things. <br /><br />And from that perspective, I'm also a series three registered CTA. We are right now. We don't always, right now we're accepting new money from accredited investors. I can't discuss the performance. I'm happy to have one-on-one conversations, see if you're a fit for us and we're a fit for you. We don't accept just anybody and nor should anyone just invest with anyone. But the degree to which our program is designed specifically to help investors weather the storm going forward, which is the debasement, the purchasing power of their money, their money, wealth, and income, which is coming especially, it's already happening. It's been happening really since 1976. When you look at the dollar relative to gold, I mean the dollar is not at all time low right now on that basis and is down double digits on a year over year basis. And people know this, your money buys less. <br /><br />That is a secular trend that is going to continue and intensify. And the best way to fight that is to be flexible, nimble, liquid. And you can do all those things with a commodity trading advisor. It's 24 hour turnaround. We have no lockup period. A lot of people do. But if you don't like what we're doing and we're not comfortable, if you're not comfortable. So all those things, you get information on our managed accounts program where the money's in your name, we don't touch it. It's not commingled. You're never going to see me on American Creed. No way. No. But yeah, you can email me at Greg Weldon at Weldon online to get an information packet on our money management program. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Well, my friend, you are a national treasure. It's always a pleasure to have you on the show. Always enjoy your insights and your energy. I appreciate that, especially when I'm feeling a little under the weather, it's a little bit contagious. So I appreciate that and we'll look forward to having you back here in a few months and see what's happening. We may be talking about record prices by then. <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> Well, we kind of are right now. I would be remiss if I didn't mention our podcast too. My producer will smack me around if I don't mention the podcast. So you can find me on Twitter @WeldonLive. And then our podcast, which is Money Markets and New Age Investing. I do it when I can because obviously I'm very busy, but I really love to try and this has become a point now where you spend a career doing this, you make enough money. It's more about helping people now, almost. So we have the podcast from that angle. It's free. You can find that also on Twitter @money_podcast. <strong><br /><br />Mike Maharrey: </strong>Awesome. Well, thank you so much, Greg. You have a fantastic afternoon. And then thanks again for being on the show. <strong><br /><br />Greg Weldon: </strong> My pleasure, Mike. You do a great job. &nbsp;</p>
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<p>Another great interview with Greg Weldon, and you just heard why he is one of our favorite guests.</p>
<p>Well, that will do it for this week. Be sure to check back next Friday for our next Weekly Market Wrap Podcast. And don&rsquo;t miss our second weekly podcast, the Money Metals Midweek Memo, hosted by Mike Maharrey and available each Wednesday. To check out any of our audio programs just visit <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">MoneyMetals.com/podcasts</a>&nbsp;or find them on your favorite podcast platform of choice.&nbsp;And as a big help to us we would ask you to please like, subscribe, download and rate our podcasts. Doing so helps us extend the reach of this material.</p>
<p>Until next time, this has been Mike Gleason with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/&quot; target="_blank" rel="noopener">Money Metals Exchange</a>, thanks for listening and have a wonderful Labor Day weekend everybody.</p>

      



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