<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In a monetary economy, the money layer “exists on top of” real economic decisions, actions, and processes.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When the money layer faithfully mirrors the underlying real economy, it maximally serves its purpose; a stable, neutral, non-distortionary money allows us to plan our economic affairs, make economic calculations, engage in financial contracts, and save for the future.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When the monetary layer </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">fails</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to achieve its role, it makes all those actions</span> <a href="https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/inflation-is-bad-actually" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span style="font-weight: 400;">harder to navigate</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, causing a real drag on our economic behavior—with the unfortunate outcome that we’re all poorer for it.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We find it harder to make commerce, engage in mutually beneficial contracts with employers or clients, or save for old age. We must constantly reassess and renegotiate our contracts and wages, even switching jobs every few years to make real headway.</span></p>
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But the most immediate consequence, known to anyone who has ever had a little bit left over from their earnings, is that </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">you cannot save in the “money</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;">” </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">used today.</span></i></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Whether the physical notes in your wallet or the digital bank account representations thereof, over time, they yield a saver fewer goods and services. The outcome for us in the 21st century, and for most of the 20th century, is that we must </span><b>constantly chase returns on the funds we have already earned</b><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">We become, so to speak, part-time managers of our own finances, having to maximize interest on bank accounts, invest spare funds in the stock market, set savings aside in tax-favored retirement accounts (again consisting mostly of paper stocks), or lend funds to the government against fickle and unreliable promises that we will get back what we put in—tomorrow or in 40 years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is the outcome of a very different world than that for most people and nations up until comparatively recently.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">For all of the</span> <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/33839" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Bank of England’s 800-year plentiful price history</a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> for England/Britain/the U.K., we see aggregate prices bounce up and down greatly—as one would expect from underdeveloped and largely agricultural economies subject to random harvest surpluses and misfalls.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What is astonishing to a modern eye is that from 1210 to around 1934, </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">there is no trendline</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;">. There are years where prices explode upward, most likely due to some real economic event (poor harvests or wartime constraints), followed by years of price declines (improved harvests and/or end of wars).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is precisely what we would expect from a commodity-based monetary system with</span> <a href="https://stacker.news/items/854062/r/denlillaapan"><span style="font-weight: 400;">credible commitment</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">: A</span> <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/05/24/is-the-world-lurching-back-toward-a-gold-standard-003213"><span style="font-weight: 400;">gold standard</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">—a monetary order where gold is the base money or the monetary unit is tied directly to a quantity of gold—constrains monetary affairs such that prices </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">over time</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> are</span> <a href="https://marketedu.me/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20231124-Better-Money.pdf"><span style="font-weight: 400;">mean-reverting</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The exploration and inflow of gold accelerate when prices are low; they slow down when prices are high. Over time, the real value of a unit of money remains flat. Trendless. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img src="https://www.moneymetals.com/uploads/content/Consumer-Price-Inflation-in-the-United-Kingdom-1210-to-2000-FRED.png" width="809" height="285" alt="" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Beginning in 1934, British prices never again fell. There’s a concrete regime shift, where prices after this point had an upward trend—forever.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">That makes it harder to forecast the value in the future of today’s income, a given sum of money, or a contract, since even small forecasting errors around a stated target (such as the 2% inflation target favored by most central banks) add up over time and push the saver far off course. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The American experience is less clean, but the principle still holds. Prices here gradually fell until the 1860s, when they shot up during the Civil War, came down afterward, and continued their slow, secular, downward trajectory.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">They hit a low point in the 1890s, and increased somewhat up until World War I—a price level experience it shared with the rest of the Atlantic world, having much to do with the shared monetary base (gold) and the gold mine discoveries in Western Australia (1885), South Africa (1886), and eventually the </span><a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/the-untold-history-of-gold-rushes-in-the-united-states"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yukon Territory (1896)</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">After the Great Depression and the first complete detachment of</span> <a href="https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">money from gold</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, America followed Britain and other industrialized nations into </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">the fiat century</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;">, where the price level has a consistent but greatly variable and </span><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412000304"><span style="font-weight: 400;">unpredictable</span></a><a href="https://www.econbiz.de/Record/how-good-was-the-gold-standard-hogan-thomas/10013212977"><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">trend</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">—and erratic and varying inflation rates punctuated by once-a-decade bursts of money printing.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is not a</span> <a href="https://mises.org/mises-wire/sebag-and-natural-money"><span style="font-weight: 400;">natural economic world</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, and, it is not inevitable either. Our savings behavior and the assets we use to move economic</span> <a href="https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/how-societies-save-for-an-uncertain-future/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">value forward</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> across time are directly related to the monetary regime under which we live.</span></p>
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">When the money itself doesn’t work to safeguard future value, people use (“monetize”) everything else that’s liquid enough—paintings, rare wine, houses, stocks. Our houses become ATMs, our mortgages a way to short the currency; these behaviors have distortionary effects, most obviously by using</span> <a href="https://youtu.be/siR5267F5l8?t=3608"><span style="font-weight: 400;">condos and apartments</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in our largest cities for storing economic value rather than providing shelter for their owners, or a financial sector much larger than it would have been under a harder money. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The perverse conclusion, contrary to all prudent savings advice up and down the centuries, is for individuals to hold the maximum amount of debt they can carry and to never, ever, hold </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">money (i.e., fiat currency)</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;">—the very object whose socioeconomic function </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">is</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> to move economic value across time and place. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The backdrop of a broken monetary regime is the underappreciated variable in many current political and social disputes. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Until we pay attention to how today’s monetary regime is different from all that came before it, most current topics of a fiscal or macroeconomic nature won’t make sense. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">To paraphrase James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist during the 1992 election, only a little: </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">It’s the money, stupid.</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p>