Gold’s Next Surge: Why 2026 Could Be Historic -

In the latest episode of the Money Metals Podcast, host Mike Maharrey sat down with veteran technical analyst <a href="https://tinyurl.com/45n9yu76" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jordan Roy-Byrne</a>, author of <a href="https://g.co/kgs/3udizDA" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Gold & Silver: The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun</a> and publisher of <a href="https://thedailygold.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Daily Gold newsletter</a>. 
The conversation explored gold’s historical price patterns, the current technical outlook for both gold and silver, investment psychology, bond market dynamics, and how today’s macroeconomic conditions resemble the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2023/11/22/repeating-the-1970s-lost-decade-002871">inflationary environment of the 1970s</a> and early 1980s.
(Interview Starts 5:20 Around Mark)
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<h2>Gold’s Breakout and the Technical Road to 2026</h2>
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Jordan Roy-Byrne began by emphasizing the importance of <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price">gold’s breakout in March 2024</a>. 
This move marked the seventh major breakout in gold’s history, and more notably, the fourth time gold has reached sustained all-time highs. 
After the surge past $3,300 in April 2025, <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/11/gold-grinding-sideways-but-gathering-strength-004189">gold entered a sideways trading pattern</a>—a phase Roy-Byrne views as a classic consolidation following a historic breakout.
According to his analysis, these post-breakout consolidations are typical. 
Historically, gold often pulls back to retest its long-term moving averages, particularly the 200-day moving average, before resuming a strong upward trajectory. 
At the time of the interview, gold remained well above its 200-day moving average of approximately $2,954, suggesting more room for correction without undermining the long-term trend. 
Roy-Byrne pointed to past instances, such as in 2009 and 2010, where similar dynamics played out, and he believes that a short-term move down to $3,150 would still be consistent with a bullish setup.
Looking further ahead, Roy-Byrne predicts that gold could resume its upward momentum in 2026, following a consolidation phase lasting another one to two months. 
He drew specific comparisons to the 1972 breakout, when gold corrected by 11–12%, moved sideways for about four and a half months, and then launched into a second major rally. 
Gold’s behavior today, he argued, is closely mirroring that historical pattern, suggesting the next leg up could be especially powerful.
<h2>Silver’s Historic Setup and 1970s Parallels</h2>
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Silver, too, is showing remarkable alignment with historical precedent—particularly the early 1970s. Roy-Byrne has been tracking silver’s movements against the analog of its behavior in 1972, and he noted the similarities are striking. Just as gold followed a large breakout with a healthy consolidation in the 1970s, silver also experienced a pause before soaring to new highs.
Based on his technical models and historical analogs, Roy-Byrne sees the potential for silver to reach $50 per ounce within the next three or four months. 
After such a move, he expects a multi-month consolidation before silver attempts to break through the $50 resistance level. 
If that happens, it would represent a historic breakout <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/10/silver-upleg-imminent-004186">not seen since the early 1980s</a>.
He also pointed out that silver is moving in lockstep with gold’s breakout pattern, particularly the cup-and-handle formations both metals have developed over multi-year timeframes. These structures, often predictive of explosive upward moves, are reinforcing Roy-Byrne’s view that silver has considerable upside ahead—especially in the current macroeconomic environment.
<h2>Investor Psychology and the Hesitation Toward Gold</h2>
Roy-Byrne addressed a recurring theme in precious metals investing: why so many investors, particularly in the United States, are hesitant to buy into gold even when <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/08/the-greatest-gold-and-silver-bull-market-has-begun-003893">technical indicators are overwhelmingly bullish</a>. He attributed this reluctance primarily to a lack of experience and a lack of conviction.
He explained that inexperienced investors tend to second-guess market movements. When gold is not going up, they see no reason to buy it. 
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When gold has already moved higher, they fear they’ve missed the opportunity and expect a correction. This constant hesitation results in missed opportunities. 
Drawing on his own experience, Roy-Byrne noted that early in his career, he too struggled with fear during minor price drops, despite understanding the broader trend.
Over time, he learned that strong market trends often persist well beyond the point at which they appear “overbought.” Investors who lack long-term perspective are often whipsawed by short-term volatility. 
He emphasized that building confidence requires understanding both market history and technical behavior, which comes only with time and exposure to multiple cycles.
<h2>The Inflationary Blueprint of 1965–1982</h2>
Roy-Byrne turned to a macroeconomic perspective, asserting that the current environment bears a strong resemblance to the period between the mid-1960s and early 1980s—a time defined by persistent inflation and a secular bear market in bonds. He pointed to the total real return on bonds, adjusted for inflation using an 80-month moving average, which began rolling over in 2021 or 2022. 
This marks only the second such instance in over a century—the first being from 1965 to 1982.
During that earlier period, bonds underperformed and could not serve as a safe haven. Stock market corrections in that era, such as the 37% decline from 1968 to 1970 and the 50% decline from 1973 to 1974, unfolded differently from more recent crashes. 
Unlike the sharp mid-crash collapses of 2008 or 1929, these earlier bear markets played out more slowly and often ended with steep declines only after extended periods of weakness.
Roy-Byrne believes this matters greatly because many analysts today are predicting crashes similar to 2008 or 1929, overlooking the structural differences. With bonds no longer offering safety, investors today cannot simply rotate out of equities into fixed income. 
Instead, the market is behaving more like it did in the 1970s—favoring commodities and precious metals while punishing overleveraged sectors.
He also emphasized the role of the U.S. government in fueling inflation. With deficits growing and interest rates under pressure, he expects this inflationary cycle to persist for years. According to Roy-Byrne, we are only in the early stages of a long-term monetary transition that will reward holders of real assets like gold and silver.
<h2>Ignoring Political Spin: Let the Markets Speak</h2>
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The conversation turned to the disconnect between government messaging and market behavior. Maharrey cited recent comments from former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and other officials who claimed that inflation was under control and that further rate cuts were needed. Roy-Byrne dismissed these assertions as political posturing.
He explained that politicians and central bankers often recycle the same narratives, regardless of which party is in power. When inflation becomes undeniable, blame is simply shifted to previous administrations. 
Rather than focusing on these surface-level claims, Roy-Byrne urged listeners to watch what markets are doing.
In his view, market behavior speaks louder than official pronouncements. 
Gold and copper have already broken out of decade-long technical bases. Bonds are underperforming, and capital is flowing out of fixed income despite official assurances of stability. 
Roy-Byrne believes these market signals reflect genuine structural change and that inflation is not only real—it’s accelerating.
<h2>The Technical Picture for Silver and the Gold-Silver Ratio</h2>
Maharrey raised the topic of the gold-silver ratio, a metric often used to assess the relative value between the two metals. Roy-Byrne admitted he does not pay much attention to the ratio, calling it unreliable and prone to false signals.
He explained that while some investors attempt to time their trades by switching between gold and silver based on this ratio, he prefers to own both metals simultaneously. Rather than using the ratio to trigger trades, he focuses on the individual technical setups of gold and silver.
He did acknowledge that in extreme cases, the ratio might offer some value, but in general, he considers it more of a distraction. Given the volatility and complexity of both metals, he believes that focusing on clear breakout patterns and macroeconomic context provides a more accurate investment framework.
<h2>Mining Stocks: Entering a Profitability Window</h2>
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<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/08/money-metals-ceo-stefan-gleason-talks-gold-silver-and-mining-royalty-companies-004180">Turning to mining stocks</a>, Roy-Byrne was optimistic. He noted that the sector is currently benefiting from rising metal prices while energy costs remain relatively low. This combination is ideal for gold and silver producers, whose margins depend on the spread between metal prices and operational costs.
Importantly, he highlighted that gold and silver are not just rising in nominal terms—they are increasing in real terms, relative to inflation. 
Using data from the Consumer Price Index, Roy-Byrne discovered that the inflation-adjusted prices of both metals had broken out of long-term bases. These moves are historically linked to <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/14/the-royal-royalty-play-004197">strong performance in mining stocks</a>.
However, he cautioned that this window of profitability won’t last forever. 
Eventually, inflation will hit miners’ cost structures, reducing margins even if metal prices stay high. Steel, fuel, labor, and equipment costs will all rise, and when that happens, the leverage that miners offer will diminish.
He also discussed the long-term impact of gold and silver ETFs, which debuted in the mid-2000s. 
Prior to ETFs, investors had few ways to gain exposure to precious metals, so mining stocks traded at higher valuations. 
Today, with ETFs like GLD and SLV widely available, investors can own metals directly—decreasing demand for mining shares and dampening their performance relative to earlier cycles.
<h2>Global Investment Trends and the Rise of Precious Metal ETFs</h2>
Maharrey pointed out that <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/07/08/h1-etf-gold-inflows-rise-to-levels-not-seen-since-the-pandemic-004179">ETFs are gaining traction globally</a>, particularly in Asia. Roy-Byrne agreed, noting that Chinese gold ETFs have seen significant inflows since late 2024. 
Similarly, silver ETFs saw more metal inflows in the first half of 2025 than they did in all of 2024.
These vehicles have opened the door for a broader set of investors—particularly institutions—to access precious metals without needing to store or physically manage them. 
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Roy-Byrne acknowledged this as a key reason for the growing financialization of gold and silver, even as he personally advocates for owning physical metal for wealth protection.
The ETF boom illustrates a structural shift in how gold and silver are viewed within portfolios. 
Increasingly, they are being treated like core assets rather than speculative hedges, which could help sustain demand even as macro conditions evolve.
<h2>Final Thoughts and Where to Learn More</h2>
To close the episode, Roy-Byrne invited listeners to download his book for free at <a href="http://thedailygold.com" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">TheDailyGold.com</a>, where they can also access his premium research and analysis. 
He shares frequent insights on X (formerly Twitter) via <a href="https://x.com/TheDailyGold" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@TheDailyGold</a> and publishes video recaps and educational content on YouTube under the same brand.
Mike Maharrey concluded by stressing the importance of historical and technical perspectives when evaluating the precious metals market. 
In a media environment obsessed with daily headlines, voices like Roy-Byrne’s help investors zoom out, gain clarity, and position themselves for the long-term realities of inflation, monetary instability, and market transformation.
To explore investing in precious metals such as gold or silver, visit <a href="http://moneymetals.com">MoneyMetals.com</a>.

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