Gold Co.’s Widely-Expected PEA Is Due Out Shortly

Markets are closed in memoriam for the recently deceased former president Jimmy Carter, but futures remain open.

The USD index futures are ahead 0.01% to 108.940 this morning with the 10-year yield down 0.77% to 4.657 and the 30-year yield down 0.97% to 4.884%.

Gold (+0.67%), silver (+1.35%), copper (+2.10%), and oil (+0.37%) are all higher.

Stock futures are mixed, with the DJIA down 5.4 points, the S&P 500 futures down 6.9 points, and the NASDAQ down 0.17%. Risk barometer Bitcoin (-2.21%) is down $2,112 to $93,353.

First Five Days Indicator

The First Five Days indicator tracks market performance for the period and ends this afternoon at 4:00 pm. With the S&P 500 closing yesterday at 5,909.03, it is a mere 27.4 points above the 2024 closing level of 5,881.63. If it holds that level today, it eliminates the likelihood of a down January (and failed January Barometer). If it closes below that level, it increases the odds of 2025 being a down year or, at best, sharply reduced gains.

Statistically, if any one of the SCR, FFD, or JB has a negative outcome, the failed “trifecta” results in a 59.5% probability of an up year (versus 90.6% for a full “Trifecta”) with an average gain of just 2.9%. Richard Russell used to say that the FFD only provided a clue to the outcome for January and not for the full year. He placed far greater emphasis on the JB.

December Seasonality Trades

In early December, I suggested that year-end rebalancing would favour bonds over stocks and that a “Long TLT/Short SPY” set-up would benefit from portfolio managers selling stocks and buying bonds in order to get the portfolio weightings back to 60% stocks-40% bonds. Well, one half of that trade worked beautifully with the SPY:US down 1.8% for the month.

Conversely, the bond market get walloped as bonds were sold off with the 10-yr. and 30-yr. yields rising 50 basis points in December.

We bought the combination at the following prices:

• TLT January $90 calls: $4.35
• SPY January $600 puts: $6.10 Total: $10.45

As of month end, prices went out at:

• TLT January $90 calls: $0.06
• SPY January $600 puts: $15.09 Total: $15.15

Profit: $4.70 44.98% return

We also provided a year-end strategy whereby small-cap stocks outperform large-cp stocks due to excessive tax-loss selling in the more speculative small-cap issues. That, too, failed to adhere to historical norms.

In early December, we put on the following trade:

• SPY January $590 puts at $3.75
• IWM January $245 calls at $5.00 Net debit: $8.75

As of month end, prices went out at:

• SPY January $590 puts at $15.09
• IWM January $245 calls at $.03 Net debit: $15.12

Profit: $6.37 72.8% return

These trades worked well, but to be brutally honest, it was totally for reasons that were far removed from my expectations. That bonds and small caps went wonky in a seasonally strong period is extremely bearish.

Getchell Gold Corp.

Getchell Gold Corp.’s (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) widely-expected PEA is due out shortly, and I for one, am speculating that it will result in a rerating and higher prices.

I have been quietly accumulating more stock at current prices and looking for a pop-by month-end.