Follow the Recipe -

We've seen wild swings in the markets based on the latest headlines. How do we cut through the noise and make good investment decisions?
In this episode of the Money Metals' Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey explains that you need a good recipe. 
A plan. 
A process. 
But to formulate a plan, you need good data. That's tricky when the primary source of data is the government. Mike breaks down the inflation of the pandemic era using a new AI tool to reveal just how sketchy that government data is. This underscores the fact that when we have a realistic view of the economy, all roads lead to gold and silver.
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Mike opens the show by noting that Tampa Bay Lightning coach John Cooper won the Jack Adams trophy. 
<blockquote>
"The trophy goes to the NHL coach "adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success." It was a long time coming. Coop is by far the longest-tenured coach in the NHL, and since he’s been behind the bench in Tampa, the Lightning have made the playoffs every season except one.
"Cooper is big on what he refers to as 'the recipe.' But that, he means the process, the system, the blueprint.
"Hockey can be a funny game. When the puck luck turns on you, you can lose a game even if you outplayed the other team. You can hit bad streaks where the goals just stop coming. That’s when the recipe is the most important. Coop always stresses the importance of sticking to the plan even when things are going sideways. Sure, sometimes you have to tweak the recipe. But coaches are often far too quick to panic and start making wholesale changes when things go badly. If you have a good recipe – stick to it. Keep working the plan. Keep doing things the right way, and the tide will turn. 
"I think this is also a wise approach to investing."
</blockquote>
Mike recalls that during <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2026/06/05/gold-silver-get-hammered-as-fed-fears-return-004971">a recent interview with Axel Merk,</a> he asked how investors should approach all of the uncertainty and volatility in the markets right now. Axel said you need to have a process.
<blockquote>
“My view is the most important thing for investors is to have a process. It does not need to be a good process; have a process. And what I mean with that is precisely that you don't change your positioning based on every headline. Don't change your positioning based on our conversation, for goodness sake.”
</blockquote>
In other words, have a recipe and stick to it. 
Mike notes that a process is usually predicated on longer-term expectations and market fundamentals. That can easily get lost in a headline-driven environment. 
It's also difficult if you don't have reliable data. Unfortunately, most economic data is determined by government agencies, and their data is sketchy, to say the least. 
Mike points out that there seems to be a disconnect between this government data and people's perception of the economy. While the data looks good on the surface, consumers are reporting a great deal of pain and a lack of confidence in the trajectory of the economy. 
<blockquote>
"The official government data doesn’t seem to reflect this pain. Sure, there’s some price inflation out there, but it’s not that bad — so we're told. Jobs are plentiful, so we’re told. And the economy is growing based on GDP — so we're told. Why is there a disconnect? Either people are just imagining their pain, or the data is off. It’s far more likely that the data is off."
</blockquote>
Mike explains that there is a new AI tool called <a href="https://realityindex.co/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Reality Index</a> that opens the door to better data that is not filtered through government assumptions and formulas. 
<blockquote>
"It provides a more unfiltered look at price movements, and it reveals that things are indeed as bad as people sense."
</blockquote>
Economist Jeffrey Tucker used this tool to examine the impacts of the COVID-era lockdown policies and revealed that it was worse than the data indicates. 
<blockquote>
"His analysis encapsulates the broader problem with using government data to analyze the trajectory of the economy."
</blockquote>
Mike summarizes Tucker's findings. In a nutshell, price inflation was nearly double the official number, and there was a much more significant decline in GDP than the government data reveals. 
<blockquote>
"That’s the beauty of independent data crunching. It pulls away the government veil and reflects the reality we’re all experiencing. It also gives us a foundation to develop our investing recipe and helps cut through the headline-driven noise."
</blockquote>
Mike says another dynamic influencing his recipe is <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/19/gold-the-federal-reserve-and-a-catch-22-004773">the Catch-22</a> the Federal Reserve finds itself in. 
<blockquote>
"It goes right along with the inflation issue. Over the last couple of years, I’ve felt like a voice crying in the wilderness when it comes to this. Everybody seems to just ignore the debt black hole. But some more mainstream folks are starting to see the writing on the proverbial wall."
</blockquote>
Mainstream analysts assume the central bank will hold rates higher for longer due to the inflationary pressure introduced by the U.S-Iran war. There is even growing speculation that the Fed will raise rates this year. Several <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/01/rate-hikes-the-right-medicine-at-the-wrong-time-004954">Fed officials have started laying the groundwork for a rate hike</a>.
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However, Mike says it’s not as simple as that.
<blockquote>
"An economy dominated by a Debt Black Hole doesn’t function very well in a high (or even a normal) interest rate environment. The central bankers at the Federal Reserve face a tough choice. They can either keep monetary policy tight – holding rates higher for longer or even raising rates – to tamp down price inflation, or they can ease monetary policy to take pressure off this debt-riddled bubble economy.
"They can’t do both."
</blockquote>
Mike highlights a recent interview with Sprott Inc. President Ryan McIntyre, in which he said the Fed is “walking a tightrope” and has few viable policy options. He said that scenario will ultimately drive investors to gold.
<blockquote>
"McIntyre said it was a 'coin flip' whether the central bank would hike rates before the end of the year. But he said he thinks pressure on gold from the threat of higher yields is temporary. He argues the structural bull market remains intact because there is a bigger problem than inflation – the aforementioned debt black hole."
</blockquote>
Ultimately, McIntyre said that no matter what the Fed does, all roads lead to gold because it is one of the few assets positioned to benefit from both possible moves. 
Mike says this is why gold and silver need to be included in your investment recipe. 
He wraps up the show by urging listeners to call 800-800-1865 to speak with a Money Metals precious metals specialist today. 
<h2>Articles Mentioned During the Show</h2>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/04/americans-increasingly-using-buy-now-pay-later-to-purchase-groceries-and-gas-004965">Americans Increasingly Using Buy-Now-Pay-Later to Purchase Gas and Groceries</a>
<a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/05/28/the-state-of-the-american-consumer-no-savings-and-buried-in-debt-004947">The State of the American Consumer: Broke, Stressed, and Buried in Debt</a>

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