Deep Corrections Are Normal During Secular Bull Markets


<p>Gold broke below $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday. This 28 percent drop from the record highs of January is certainly painful, but deep corrections are not unusual in a bull market.</p>
<p>In a recent note, Solomon Global managing director Paul Williams said investors need to put the recent price movement into perspective, noting&nbsp;that there were several big corrections during the secular bull market of the 1960s and 1970s.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;During the 1970s, gold fell by around 45 percent between its mid-decade highs and 1976 lows before surging to record levels in 1980.&rdquo;</p>
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<p>He also pointed out the 30 percent decline in the early days of the Great recession.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;These episodes demonstrate that sharp corrections have often been part of the journey for long-term gold investors, and the question they need to ask is whether the fundamental reasons for owning gold have materially changed. In my view, they have not.&rdquo;</p>
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<p>Williams said the fundamentals that drove gold and silver to record highs &ldquo;didn&rsquo;t disappear overnight.&rdquo; These include central bank gold buying, geopolitical risks, and elevated debt levels.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;Short-term price moves are often driven by factors such as profit-taking, shifts in interest rate expectations, and currency strength, rather than by a fundamental change in gold's long-term investment case.&rdquo;</p>
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<p>In an interview with Kitco News, KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF COO and chief portfolio manager Jeffry Prior echoed Williams&rsquo; thoughts, arguing the factors driving the long-term bull market remain intact. He specifically mentioned <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/03/11/de-dollarization-gold-and-a-shift-to-a-multipolar-world-003898&quot;>ongoing de-dollarization</a>, which he said is becoming &ldquo;structural&rdquo; and will remain &ldquo;persistent.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Prior pointed out that many countries want to shield themselves from the <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/02/29/could-weaponization-of-the-dollar-as-a-foreign-policy-billy-club-accelerate-de-dollarization-003013&quot;>weaponization of the dollar,</a> and the trend isn&rsquo;t likely to slow down anytime soon.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;Countries are looking for a store of value outside of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury market. If countries are producing more oil and income starts flowing again, we don&rsquo;t see that capital going into the Treasury market. We see it going back into the gold market.&rdquo;</p>
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<p>We see this de-dollarization in continued central bank gold buying. The pace of central bank purchases moderated in 2025 but remained far above the recent historical average. Official net full-year buying came in at 863.3 tonnes. That was down 21 percent year-on-year, charting the lowest level since 2021.</p>
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<p>Even so, <a href="https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/06/02/ecb-confirms-gold-has-overtaken-treasuries-as-top-global-reserve-asset-004959&quot;>gold has overtaken Treasuries</a> as the top global reserve asset. And while central bank gold purchases declined last year, they remained well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes.</p>
<p>To put that into context, central bank gold reserves increased by an average of just 473 tonnes annually between 2010 and 2021.</p>
<p>Prior said the recent correction creates a buying opportunity for investors.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;I think, given the repricing of gold here, it&rsquo;s probably a pretty good entry point.&rdquo;</p>
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<p>While Prior remains long-term bullish on gold, he did warn that investors will likely see plenty of near-term volatility. That said, they should focus on the bigger structural themes and not the short-term interest rate fluctuations.</p>
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<p>&ldquo;Gold is a defensive asset within a portfolio. The retail flow that was going into gold has largely been cleaned up, so you probably won&rsquo;t get stuck in a panic sell at this point.&rdquo;</p>
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